- Sunday 19 May 2013
- My Account
- Logout
- Register
- Login
- News
-
Voices
-
Find by writer
- Yasmin Alibhai-Brown
- Rebecca Armstrong
- Memphis Barker
- Terence Blacker
- Chris Blackhurst
- David Blanchflower
- Archie Bland
- Ian Burrell
- Andrew Buncombe
- Ben Chu
- Patrick Cockburn
- Laura Davis
- Mary Dejevsky
- Grace Dent
- Robert Fisk
- Andrew Grice
- Philip Hensher
- Ian Herbert
- Howard Jacobson
- Ellen E Jones
- Alice Jones
- Owen Jones
- Emily Jupp
- Simon Kelner
- Dominic Lawson
- Donald Macintyre
- Lisa Markwell
- Comment
- Campaigns
- Debate
- Editorials
- Letters
- IV Drip
- Archive
- Our Voices
- Commentators
- Columnists
- Democracy 2015
- IV Drip Archive
-
Find by writer
- Sport
- Tech
- Life
- Property
- Arts & Ents
- Travel
- Money
- IndyBest
- Blogs
- Student
Saturday 16 April 2011
Shashank Joshi: We would be ill-advised to be dragged into another land war like the Iraq disaster
Analysis
The phrase "second resolution", with its echoes of the pre-Iraq diplomatic wrangling of 2003, strikes an ominous note. The French call for UN authorisation of regime change is, at best, a rash gamble.
At worst, it will shatter the coalition, drive Britain in the direction of another catastrophic land war, and chip away at the pillars of legality on which this war was erected.
But the minimalists are no less confused. Those who advocate a narrow interpretation of UN Resolution 1973, as allowing only a no-fly zone and purely defensive measures, have no credible answer to the questions of how western forces will halt their military operations without risking a resumption of horrific attacks on civilians, or why the rebels would accept a de facto partition. It is therefore imperative that Nato degrade Gaddafi's war machine, because no settlement will be stable or enforceable without irreversible change in the balance of power.
Regime change as an ambition is neither imprudent nor unusual. This is the British position in, say, Myanmar and Iran. But as explicit policy, it is reckless, wishful, and devoid of strategic nuance
First, France could not get the resolution it hints at. Resolution 1973 barely escaped a Russian and Chinese veto. Only days ago, a meeting of the Bric countries condemned the use of force against Libya and called it all-but illegal. Every one of these four emerging powers is a member of the UN Security Council.
Second, Resolution 1973 was a triumph of international diplomacy. It combined Arab support, elastic language, and humanitarian objectives. Libya was everything Iraq was not. If western powers sought – and were denied – a second resolution, but pushed for regime change regardless, this triumph could be stillborn. Unilateral action would inflame Arab opinion, dissolve Turkish and German support, and generate an international chorus of condemnation.
The war in Iraq demonstrated that unilateralism has grave symbolic costs. The war in Afghanistan shows that a fractured and weary alliance is an ineffectual one. Repeating these two mistakes would leave Britain and France, in a few months' time, isolated from allies and their own parliaments.
Third, and most important, by what means does the coalition intend to topple Gaddafi? The two obvious answers – relying on the rebels, and an expansion in airstrikes – are unworkable.
Though the rebels will soon be flush with cash and arms, this will not swing the balance. They lack any meaningful organisation, training, doctrine, and cohesion.
The alternative to relying on the rebels as Nato's army is to turn Nato into the rebels' air force. In the 1999 Kosovo War, Milosevic's defiance forced Nato to target dual-use facilities such as bridges and power plants and, eventually, to begin concrete preparations for a ground campaign.
But emulating this model would be the height of folly. Targeting dual-use infrastructure in Libya would amplify the humanitarian crisis and would anger many otherwise supportive Libyans.
Above all, the prospect of ground forces should be viewed with alarm and scorn. In February, the US Defence Secretary, Robert Gates, argued that "any future Defence Secretary who advises the President to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should have his head examined". There is wise counsel here for both Whitehall and the Quai d'Orsay: limited war demands limited aims.
The writer is an associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute
-
The Oxford child sex abuse case shows how the media talks in stereotypes but misses the big picture
Paul Vallely -
B-list scandals begin to take the shine off Barack Obama's halo
Rupert Cornwell -
The penis size study: How do British men fare?
Laura Davis -
The Daily Cartoon
-
It’s official: thanks to Stephen Hawking's Israel boycott, anti-Semitism is no more
Howard Jacobson
-
The Oxford child sex abuse case shows how the media talks in stereotypes but misses the big picture
-
When 'off the record' becomes on the agenda as 'swivel-eyed loons' furore grows
-
Offer voters the EU pizza and they'll spit it out
-
B-list scandals begin to take the shine off Barack Obama's halo
-
Marriage is about joy, whatever your gender
-
Angelina Jolie's bravery has little to say to everywoman
Get your summer started with British Military Fitness
BMF is the UK’s biggest and best loved outdoor fitness classes
Visit York
Find out what The Independent's resident travel expert has to say about one of the most beautiful small cities in the world
Enter the latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Business videos from commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
Related Articles
-
Hezbollah takes fight to anti-Assad rebels as Syria’s war spills into Lebanon
-
Analysis: West learns to jaw not war on Syria as the country's civil war destabilises the region
-
Saudi Arabian woman makes history having successfully scaled Mount Everest
-
B-list scandals begin to take the shine off Barack Obama's halo
Get the best in opinion from Independent Voices, straight to your inbox every Thursday lunchtime.
Subscribe
Amol Rajan
A weekly update from the Editor
iJobs General
Senior Employment Solicitor - Birmingham
£50000 - £60000 per annum + Excellent Package: Austen Lloyd: This is a senior ...
Teaching Programme Officer with Qualified Teacher Status
£28000 - £31500 per annum + benefits: Randstad Education Newcastle: Permanent ...
SAP FI-CA Consultant - up to £58k
£50000 - £58000 per annum + Benefits and Bonus: Progressive Recruitment: SAP F...
PHP/ Drupal Developer - £35k - WC
£30000 - £40000 per annum + BENS: Progressive Recruitment: Drupal Developer A ...
Day In a Page
The price of pacifism
Jason Isaacs: Groupies, theatre bores and James Bond
Sealand: 'Micronation' or illegal fortress?
Legend of James Hunt has set Hollywood hearts racing
Macklemore: 'I don't have moderation'
Don't be shy: Bill Granger's Sri Lankan recipes
Gordon Ramsay's worst nightmare: A restaurant he cannot save
