Labour’s victory in Scotland may not be as seismic as it seems

Editorial: The opinion polls across Scotland as a whole suggest a much smaller swing on a national basis than Labour’s achievement in the by-election

7 October 2023 (Dave Brown)

The Labour Party’s elation at the prospect of a resurgence in Scotland is understandable. A few years ago, its MPs were a critically endangered species. Now they present no cause for concern. Quite the opposite, in fact.

If even half of the dramatic swing to the party from the SNP were to be replicated at a national level in Scotland at the general election, Sir Keir Starmer could look forward to a useful boost to augment his presence in the Commons. If the full performance in Rutherglen and Hamilton West – a 20.4 per cent switch from SNP to Labour – were to spread across the central belt, then he could look forward to a solid phalanx of 40 or more Scottish Labour MPs turning up to help intimidate a denuded and demoralised Tory opposition, as well as a handful of surviving Scottish nationalists.

Labour, traditionally, has had a mixed record in winning by-elections, and a dismal one in Scotland. All of a sudden, it seems that the collapse in Labour support that followed the 2014 independence referendum has ended, and that the party is enjoying a renaissance.