Five things to watch for in the second Republican presidential debate

Republicans will show down at the Reagan Library tonight

Before Republicans began to idolise former president Donald Trump, most prayed at the altar of Ronald Reagan, who famously bestowed an 11th Commandment to the GOP: “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”

Despite this, all of the Republican presidential candidates will be doing a whole bunch of sinning in the late president’s backyard as Republicans convene at the Reagan Library for the second debate. That is, of course, with the exception of Mr Trump, who is ditching the event to speak in Detroit in an attempt to appeal to striking auto workers (albeit at a non-union shop).

At this point, polling shows that Mr Trump enjoys an almost insurmountable lead not only nationally but also in the early contest states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That may make some think this is largely an irrelevant debate, but there are still important observations to be made in tonight’s debate

Here’s five things to watch:

Who is tonight’s punching bag?

During the last Republican debate, most of the candidates attacked businessman Vivek Ramaswamy as he saw his numbers surge. Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie called him “a guy who sounds like ChatGPT.” Former vice president Mike Pence said he was inexperienced and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley slammed his lack of understanding on foreign policy. Since then, the number of voters who say he is the most electable has declined.

Republican presidential candidates have been reluctant to criticise Mr Trump already lest they anger his voters. As a result the person who is in second place or the person onstage leading the polls usually has to catch all the javelins. Many times, candidates fold under pressure, as was the case in 2019 when Democratic presidential candidates, afraid to attack Joe Biden, opted to first attack Beto O’Rourke, then Kamala Harris and then Sen Elizabeth Warren.

In recent weeks, Ms Haley has risen in polls, especially in New Hampshire, where she now leads Florida Gov Ron DeSantis. In the past, Mr Pence attacked her for not supporting a 15-week abortion ban. Expect him and others to come after her. While it may not seem consequential, it does lead to the next thing to watch.

Do or die for Ron DeSantis

Those same polls that show Ms Haley rising have also shown Mr DeSantis cratering. For the most part, donors have decided to move elsewhere or at least look into other candidates, including Ms Haley and Sen Tim Scott (R-SC). Months of Mr Trump pummeling him as “Ron DeSanctimonious” coupled with Mr DeSantis’s unwillingness to attack the former president has rendered him extremely vulnerable.

His campaign has seen numerous stories about how he has shed campaign staff and has yet to see the momentum change. Last go around, his opponents did not bother attacking him. He did not interact much with the rest of the candidates on the dais and only did so against his will when the moderators asked what he thought of Mr Pence’s actions on January 6. For all of his campaign’s talk about him being a “fighter” who “never backs down” (the name of the Super PAC supporting him), he needs to begin leveling punches at the other candidates and show signs of life.

The culling of the field

In the same way that Mr DeSantis has seen his campaign lag, candidates who have little chance of winning will begin to hear calls to drop out. Donors will begin cutting off their money. With Mr Trump consolidating his share of the vote, Republican fundraisers and other party leaders will pressure candidates to avoid splitting the non-Trump field.

Already, Will Hurd, the former Texas congressman who has largely been critical of Mr Trump in his campaign despite the fact he did not vote to impeach the former president, released a statement saying his campaign would evaluate the next steps after he failed to qualify for the second debate. Similarly, other candidates like Mr Scott, who has received plaudits from donors and his fellow Republican Senators, will likely need to make crucial decisions about his next step if he fails to stand out among the frontrunners. The same goes for North Dakota Gov Doug Burgum and Mr Pence, both of whom have failed to catch fire.

Separating themselves from Trump

While Mr Trump is hoping to show himself as a friend of the working man as he speaks to union workers, many of the Republican presidential candidates have criticised the union strikes. Mr Scott, for his part, praised Mr Reagan for his firing of air traffic controllers when they went on strike. Ms Haley has hit Mr Biden for supporting organised labour. Mr Biden for his part highlighted both Mr Scott and Ms Haley’s words in a recent ad.

Mr Trump shocked much of the political world when he won former Democratic strongholds like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in 2016 and cut it close with Mr Biden again in 2020 despite losing them, largely because of his support among non-college-educated white voters thanks to him largely criticising jobs overseas. Debate moderators will likely ask the candidates whether they can appeal to those same voters Mr Trump brought into the fold.

Shutdown City

The lack of urgency of debates without Mr Trump is emphaised by the fact that it is not even the biggest story about GOP infighting this week. That dubious award goes to Republicans in the House of Representatives who have been unable to come to an agreement to prevent a government shutdown. So far, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has been unable to broker an agreement that will make all sides happy.

Much of the business community that bankrolls campaigns loathes the idea of a government shutdown. But in order for Republicans to appeal to base voters, they will likely need to adopt the most extreme language possible.