If Iran holds its nerve and stays in the nuclear deal until next year, it could beat Trump at his own game

By waiting out the US president, it could widen the transatlantic gulf between Washington and its dwindling allies in Europe

For much of Donald Trump’s reign, Iran has exercised patience. Only in recent months has it ramped up pressure on adversaries by grabbing or allegedly sabotaging private ships at sea and inching forward with dormant aspects of its nuclear programme.

But in addition to the possibility that Trump could leave the White House on 21 January 2021 and a friendlier US president could come into office, there are other approaching deadlines that might be moderating Iran’s behaviour; one is beginning to catch the attention of policymakers in the west.

It was with much fanfare last week that Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, announced the launch of the Bavar-373, a domestically made missile defence system that he described as similar to the Russian S-300. Just a few days later, Iran reportedly test-fired what it described as a new missile, the latest addition to its conventional weaponry despite years-long United Nations Security Council restrictions on the sale of weapons to Iran. While there’s a lot of attention on the country’s controversial nuclear programme, the Iranian regime invests far more in its domestic weapons industry, and polls have suggested popular support for Iran’s pursuit of missiles and conventional defences.