LEADING ARTICLE:The Long March to Dover

Not a peep for weeks. One minute, hordes of grannies linking arms with dreadlocked travellers - the next, silence. Nothing on telly, little in the papers. Were the animal rights protests just another five-minute fad in a five-minute culture?

Things are not exactly silent. Every Friday up to a thousand protesters turn up at Shoreham and the same number at Brightlingsea. On other days the number picketing the shipments in both places rarely falls below 250. But has some of the impetus gone out of the movement?

When Jill Phipps was killed outside Coventry airport two months ago, the demonstrations were at their highest point. And although some expected the tragedy of her death to galvanise protests, in fact it depressed people. The shared - and sometimes unreal - intensity of the campaign was bound to be jolted by the sudden intrusion of grief and sadness. The novelty has worn off, too. There are only so many times that the TV news, or a newspaper front page, will want to run the same story from the same place. It could also be that the political acuteness of the minister responsible, William Waldegrave, has dampened things down. His metamorphosis - chronic sufferer from foot-in-mouth disease (poll tax), to Wily Willy, doing his bit for British beasts, has given protesters that most difficult of targets, the sympathetic minister.

These factors may have combined to suggest that the animal rights movement has peaked. But there is another explanation. It is that for the last seven or eight weeks the campaign has been embarked upon a Long March through the courts and through Europe. At some point fairly soon it will emerge either victorious, or spoiling once again for a fight.

In Europe ministers will meet later today for yet more discussions on whether the rules governing animal transport should be tight (Germany), tighter (Britain) or left the same (Italy and Spain).

If the ministers cannot agree, then it is what happens in the courts that could be decisive. One case involves the animal exporters seeking judicial review of Coventry council's decision to ban flights of calves from Coventry airport. Judgment is expected soon. More important, however, is the legal action taken by the exporters against the port of Dover for refusing to handle live animal exports. Both the port authorities and the police argue that even small-scale protests would close the port and (improbably) cause gridlock up the A2 and on to the M20.

The Dover case is seminal and is likely to end up at the European Court. Should the port eventually win, then the opportunity for protesters to target and close down individual ports will be greatly enhanced. That would probably kill the trade. If Dover loses, the moment of truth will arrive. In those circumstances, the campaigners will need all the resourcefulness and ingenuity they can muster, for the battle will be long and hard. Far better, surely, if Europe's agriculture ministers were to agree this week to limitations that would satisfy most, if not all, of the protesters' demands.