Putin is Russian but not all Russians are Putin – we do not want this war

We’ll be stuck fighting a nightmarish guerrilla war with Ukrainian rebels, while our economy crumbles and everybody hates us. Even if we ‘win’, we lose

I don’t understand what the wins are for Russia here (EPA)

Thursday night on Nevsky Prospekt, the main street of St Petersburg. The crowd chanted “No to War!” “Shame!” and “Ukraine is not our enemy!” as police in riot gear lunged forward and snatched people, seemingly at random, to be taken away on buses. They included a mother carrying a baby, and an old lady who survived the siege of Leningrad.

I was still in shock. I thought Putin was just going to Ukraine for a bit, maybe send troops to stand around the rebel zones looking mean. Over the past month, I’d been talking to experts, refugees, politicians, Ukrainian defence officials, Russian mercenaries and neo-Nazis, almost none of whom thought an actual invasion was on the cards.

We thought we could follow the logic of trying to intimidate Ukraine into staying out of Nato, whether or not we agreed, and not even the Ukrainians thought Putin was about to invade. Until the rockets started hitting Kyiv, I didn’t think he would do it. But now all bets are off.

I can’t say how many Russians share my view. Most of my friends are shocked, although it’s possible I’m living in a liberal cosmopolitan bubble. The latest polls from Levada showed over half of Russians still blame the US for the crisis, but that’s before the bombs started falling and in any case, doesn’t translate to wanting to lay waste to a country where many of us have friends and relatives.

Before the shooting began, around half of Russians believed this crisis was Nato and America’s fault, but only 14 per cent blamed Ukraine. It would be interesting to see what these figures show now. We’d have to take the gold medal in mental gymnastics to convince ourselves this was the right thing to do.

2014 was different. Most Russians can (and did) get behind the near-bloodless taking of Crimea. My own thoughts were: well, it’s Russian land anyway, and whether the referendum was rigged or not, the locals still wanted to join us. But dropping bombs on our relatives in Kyiv, not so much.

As late as Sunday night, talking heads on the TV were still telling us there’d be no war. They’ve really sprung this on us, that our brothers and sons are now on their way to Ukraine to die fighting our cousins. I hope they won’t get away with this.

There are those in Russia who say: where were the peace protestors when the bombs were dropping over Donbas? Firstly, what’s happening in Donbas doesn’t mean more blood has to be spilled in Kyiv, or Kharkov, or anywhere else. If this was about saving the people of east Ukraine, who have indeed been living under siege for the past eight years, Russian peacekeepers could have easily secured Donbas and called it a day.

Admittedly, I’m not a general but I doubt the Ukrainians would have been reckless enough to try anything with the Russian army on standby, especially when they know the Americans aren’t coming to save them.

But now it’s the Russians thundering into Kyiv. And yes, they say they’re taking care not to hurt civilians, but that’s exactly what America says when they give the Middle East a taste of their “freedom”.

Second of all, this is like asking “why don’t environmentalists protest China?” We’re not Ukrainian or Chinese, we ought to clean up after ourselves first. We have little to no influence on what Kyiv or Beijing may decide, but we might at home. That’s optimistic in Putin’s Russia, of course, but it’s better than nothing – even the worst tyrants care about public opinion (unless they want to end up like Ceaușescu).

One of the greatest Russian paintings, “The Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks”, depicts the Ukrainian warriors drafting a potty-mouthed letter to the sultan of Turkey. Ukraine is supposed to be our brother nation, with a shared history and culture dating back over a thousand years. Putin said so himself. Well, if we are brothers, this is an abusive relationship. No, this is a fratricide.

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Putin says we’re “de-Nazifying” Ukraine – a land with a Jewish leader. There’s a lot in Ukraine I found not to my taste, such as the glorification of war criminals and mass murderers like Stepan Bandera. And I could follow the logic about Nato – how would America react if Russia tried to set up missiles on an island just off the coast of Florida? Oh, wait.

But whatever misgivings I had about Nato or problems Ukrainians should be solving themselves, I’m against bombing civilians even more. It doesn’t matter who’s doing it, or why. There’s much about other countries I don’t like, and I don’t think they deserve to have bombs dropped on their heads either.

I don’t understand what the wins are for Russia here. Let’s say we take over Ukraine, or a large part of it – then what? Eight years ago, there was an east Ukrainian population alienated by events in Kyiv whom Russia could count on. Once you venture beyond there, though, the natives grow hostile. We’ll be stuck fighting a nightmarish guerrilla war with Ukrainian rebels, while our economy crumbles and everybody hates us. If they didn’t want to join Nato before, they will do now. Even if we “win”, we lose.

As for sanctions, it’s not fair to punish ordinary citizens for the crimes of power. It hasn’t worked with Iran, and it won’t work here. Russia can adopt a siege mentality, and Putin may gain a firmer grip on his power. See, the eest is against us, he will say. Collective punishment is playing right into his hands.

The worst idea floated around is to deny all Russians visas. LGBT+ people in Chechnya live in constant fear of being tortured or killed by Kadyrov’s goons, or their own families. It’s difficult enough for Russians to get asylum status already. If another purge begins, gay Chechens will have nowhere to run. And that’s without mentioning all the other activists and dissidents whose lives or freedom are in danger by staying in the country.

Please know that while Putin is Russian, not all Russians are Putin, and we do not want this war.

Niko Vorobyov is a Russian-British freelancer who has been covering the Ukraine crisis from Russia for Al Jazeera. He is also the author of Dopeworld