Backing a Final Say referendum before an election could be Labour’s least risky path to power

Inside Westminster: A general election could return Boris Johnson to power with a third of the vote and Brexit still unresolved. But a Final Say referendum could bring the war to a close – and set Labour up to win the peace

We might expect the debate among MPs to be simple: deal or no deal. In fact, a very different one is raging behind the scenes at Westminster – what should happen first, a general election or Final Say referendum?

The answer could decide the final chapter of the Brexit saga. Until this week, the widespread assumption was an election, probably in late November. But in recent days, I’ve been struck by the growing opposition to an election among Labour MPs, and the growing fears among ministers that Jeremy Corbyn will deny Boris Johnson one.

For an election to be called without the government first being brought down, the support of two-thirds of MPs is needed under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. The assumption was that Johnson would get the numbers because Labour would give the go-ahead once a crash-out on 31 October had been avoided.

And Corbyn still wants an early election. “His instincts are telling him ‘just go for it’ and he will trust his instincts,” said one MP close to him. But there are wobbles at the highest level of the Labour Party. A good rule of politics is not to give your enemy what they want, and who desperately wants an election more than anyone? Johnson. If Labour denied him, he would head a “zombie government”, limping on with a majority of minus 45, unable to pass legislation, a Queen’s Speech or a budget.

One minister admitted to me: “I fear Corbyn will pull the plug and keep us waiting until next spring. For every extra week we stayed in power, we would lose public support.” Another Tory source predicted an election on the date scheduled under the act before Theresa May called her ill-fated 2017 contest – five years after the May 2015 election.

Labour officials admit it would be easier to “get our vote out” in a spring election than in a winter one. They see the attraction of letting the prime minister “stew in his own juice”. For many Labour MPs, there’s a more prosaic reason to delay: they fear they would lose their seats in a “Brexit election” dominated by one big figure – Johnson. “We could be slaughtered,” one said. They fear Labour’s fence-sitting Brexit policy is unsellable on the doorstep.

The shadow cabinet will discuss election timing next week. Senior frontbenchers, including John McDonnell, Sir Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry, see the merits of a referendum before an election, which could then be fought on much more friendly territory for Labour – austerity and inequality, for example.

Legislation for a Final Say referendum was defeated by 12 votes in April but is now coming down the track again. Another vote could happen at the special Commons sitting next Saturday. “A commons majority is emerging,” said one leading supporter. That would require a coalition of Labour, other opposition parties and – the crucial difference – some of the former Tories who lost the whip for opposing no deal.

A referendum would resolve Brexit cleanly; an election could easily result in another hung parliament, so we could be back to square one. Johnson could win an election on 35 per cent of the vote, hardly an endorsement of his Brexit strategy. Many people would vote on other issues.

The case for a referendum does not depend on Johnson securing a Brexit deal in the revitalised negotiations underway in Brussels. If he gets one, there would be a good chance of MPs making it conditional on a confirmatory referendum – offering the public a choice between the deal and Remain. If he does not, supporters of a people’s vote might propose a confirmatory referendum on May’s withdrawal agreement, with Remain the other option.

This is not as mad as it sounds. An amended version of May’s agreement, with safeguards on workers’ rights, health and safety and the environment, was never put to a parliamentary vote. It would potentially win more Labour support than Johnson’s deal, which does not offer such reassurances.

The Commons voting to back a referendum would be only the start of the process. It would take six months to hold one, demanding a longer extension of the UK’s EU membership than the three months proposed by the Benn Act. It would require government legislation. That in turn would require Johnson to swallow a six-month delay to stay in power and argue for his deal in a referendum; if he refused, he would have to be ousted in a vote of no confidence, and an agreement then reached on a caretaker prime minister – something that has so far eluded opposition parties.

It would also require Corbyn to cool his natural desire for an early election. But patience might be rewarded: with the Brexit war finally resolved, voters might just trust Labour with the peace – as they did in 1945.