What is happening in Scotland matters to the whole of the UK

The question of whether the United Kingdom will survive ought to be one of the most important at Westminster, says John Rentoul

Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has enjoyed strong positive poll ratings for her handling of the coronavirus crisis (EPA)

For the second time in two weeks, a Panelbase opinion poll last weekend found 54 per cent of people in Scotland support independence, excluding don’t knows. The question of whether the United Kingdom will survive ought to be one of the most important at Westminster, but so far it has prompted only the ritual exchange of old slogans.

The Panelbase findings are not conclusive, but the trend since 2018 has been marked, from about 54 per cent the other way, and compared with 55 per cent who voted to stay part of the UK in the referendum in 2014.

Something is happening, and not according to the obvious timetables. The Scottish National Party hoped that the UK vote to leave the EU in 2016 would be the “material change” that would change people’s minds. Instead, if anything, the cause of independence became less popular.