Creasy or Fallon? My top tips for key business players in the new Cabinet

Parliamentary Business

MP Stella Creasy's push for better regulation of payday loans companies was a signature success in this Parliament (PA Wire)

In theory, I studied politics at university. In reality, I tried desperately to save either Southampton from slipping out of the Premier League or avoid getting sacked before the end of my inaugural season managing AFC Bournemouth.

Cameron has lost the only thing he had going for him

But Championship Manager 2 was far from sympathetic to vodka-fuelled efforts to boost the fortunes of the South Coast’s elite football clubs.

Wigan Athletic turned out to be a better choice. Buy teenager David Collins from Burnley for £70,000, stick him at the head of a diamond midfield with licence to join the front two and, hey presto, a 50-odd-goal-a-season man would propel you to several top-flight crowns and the European Cup. Magic.

David Cameron names Theresa May, Boris Johnson and George Osborne as his possible successors after declaring that he wouldn’t go on as PM beyond 2020, (Getty Images)

Picking a team is fun. David Cameron was at it this week, naming Theresa May, Boris Johnson and George Osborne as his possible successors after declaring that he wouldn’t go on as PM beyond 2020, should he win the general election.

Iain Dale, the right-wing political blogger, was already at this little game at the weekend, predicting the composition of the Cabinet in the event of a Tory majority on 7 May.

Purposely and successfully, this clever blog irritated argumentative political enthusiasts. For example, Mr Dale’s notion that Patrick McLoughlin, the current Transport Secretary, would leave the Cabinet is unjustifiable: he’s done an excellent job in a historically tough brief – steering the £43bn High Speed 2 railway proposal through wave after wave of criticism, revamping the Highways Agency, and putting pressure on Network Rail. A former miner, Mr McLoughlin adds a touch of much-needed social diversity on what has been characterised as a particularly upper class front bench.

What is odd, though, is Mr Dale’s suggestion that Philip Hammond, who was only made Foreign Secretary last year, would take over the business brief. That feels like a rather unwarranted demotion for a politician who has been mercilessly rising to the top, while there are a fair few other Conservative candidates who would better fit the role.

A former director of inter-dealer broker Tullett Prebon, Mr Fallon would be a popular choice in the City (Reuters)

For example, Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, has struggled over the backlash from Tory backbenchers over the Government’s failure to commit to spending 2 per cent of national income on the military, the target as a member of Nato that is almost certain to be missed over the next few years.

But Mr Fallon was something of a fixer in the business and energy departments until his promotion to the Cabinet last summer, and the trust Mr Cameron has in the Sevenoaks MP’s abilities means the PM will want to keep him on the front bench. A former director of inter-dealer broker Tullett Prebon, Mr Fallon would be a popular choice in the City and doubtless would be committed to tearing down burdensome red tape.

Now, to a Labour outright victory. Chuka Umunna holds the shadow Business role, but the job proper would only be a temporary move for the ambitious Streatham MP. This future leadership contender will either get a major spending department in the first reshuffle to prove his skills really do meet his promise, or he could almost immediately find himself as Lord Chancellor.

44-year-old Sadiq Khan is the Shadow Justice Secretary (Justin Sutcliffe)

Should Sadiq Khan calculate that he can beat the former Olympics minister Tessa Jowell to the Labour candidacy for the 2016 London mayoral election, then he seems certain to go for it and, therefore, head up the Ministry of Justice for only a few months or even weeks. Historically, the Lord Chancellor is always a lawyer – the only exception being the man in possession of that grand title, Chris Grayling – and Mr Umunna was a solicitor at Silver Circle practice Herbert Smith Freehills.

A fellow young gun who could take the business brief is Stella Creasy. The 37-year-old’s push for better regulation of payday loans companies was a signature success in this Parliament, and, as she has proved in a remarkable spat with The Sun over her opposition to Page 3 girls, Ms Creasy can more than hold her own. That’s vital, as Ed Miliband would expect her to stand up to big business as part of his populist agenda, which has included hitting out at the Big Six energy firms over bills.

Mr Cable could also push for the Chief Secretary to the Treasury role that is likely to be vacated by Danny Alexander (PA)

Finally, there’s coalition, which brings us to the current Business Secretary, Vince Cable. The fedora-wearing 71-year-old is enjoying a remarkable success today, announcing that female representation on boards has doubled over the past four years.

It would, though, take an unlikely set of circumstances for Mr Cable to retain that post. For a start, the Liberal Democrats would have to retain sufficient seats that they could form a stable coalition with either of the main parties.

Given the Lib Dems are likely to see their 2010 haul of 57 reduced by up to half, this is unlikely. Mr Cable could also push for the Chief Secretary to the Treasury role that is likely to be vacated by Danny Alexander, given that his chances of winning back his seat in the Scottish Highlands look slim at best. A weakened Lib Dems are also likely to have fewer seats at the coffin-shaped Cabinet table, and they could sacrifice the Business Secretary role.

The tips here, then, are that either Mr Fallon or Ms Creasy will be the City’s conduit to government by the end of this year.