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General Election 2015: Labour's similarities to the Tories explains why Scots are voting SNP, says Lord Ashcroft

'There is no discernible difference between [Labour and the Tories] - the SNP are the only ones pursuing a social agenda,' said one voter

Monday 27 April 2015 17:22 BST

Ed Miliband has repeatedly rejected Nicola Sturgeon's requests to make a deal that would keep the Conservatives out of government (AFP/Getty)

Labour supporters are switching to the SNP in Scotland because they believe the party is increasingly out of touch and too close to the Conservatives on the big issues, according to new research published by the Tory peer Lord Ashcroft.

Partly due to its efforts to preserve the Union during last year’s independence referendum, Labour is now perceived by Scottish voters as being too similar to the Tories – allowing the SNP to become the country’s main left wing party.

“I’ve been Labour like a stick of rock all my life but I’ve hit a wall with them,” one voter said. “There is no discernible difference between [Labour and the Tories], the last 15 years of government have been seamless. The SNP are the only ones pursuing a social agenda.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

The findings, gathered from a series of focus groups held over the weekend in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Paisley, go some way to explaining why Labour are facing a wipeout in Scotland at the hands of the SNP.

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The former Labour voters who took part in the research complained that during the referendum campaign in September, the party had made no effort to distinguish itself from the other pro-Union parties. “It seemed like they were pushing a homogenous establishment view rather than a Labour view,” said one.

Nicola Sturgeon was also admired more than her Scottish Labour counterpart Jim Murphy. The voters said the SNP leader “speaks from the heart” and was relatable, whereas Mr Murphy seemed “angry” and “very negative”. One voter said: “He never looks as if he’s really that happy. It’s as if it’s torture for him, as though it’s a real chore.”

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