Nigel Farage: What does the EU referendum mean for the Ukip leader?

Looking back, the 2014 European Parliament elections were ‘peak Ukip’: the general election was a setback and the referendum looks like the end of the road for Nigel Farage and his party

Once the referendum is over, there will be little point of Ukip and its Leader Nigel Farage

A year before the general election I heard myself saying, in a live television interview: “In five years’ time, we will have forgotten who Nigel Farage was.” Ukip had just come top in the European Parliament elections, winning 27 per cent of the vote, but I didn’t think the party would do well at Westminster.

I was wrong about that before I was right. Farage’s party gained two seats in October and November 2014, when Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected from the Conservatives, fighting and winning by-elections. Then, in the general election, in which Ukip was expected to win about five seats, it ended up with just one. Carswell, who had already fallen out with Farage, held his seat, but Reckless lost his and Farage himself didn’t even come close in the seat he had nursed for a while, Thanet South.

I still think I was right to describe the 2014 European Parliament elections as “peak Ukip”. I said then that the general election would be the end of the party, not because it would hardly win any MPs but because its purpose would have been exhausted.

Either Ed Miliband would have formed a government, in which case the Conservatives in opposition would become the main Brexit party, rendering Ukip redundant. Or David Cameron would have been returned, in which case the referendum would be held, also rendering Ukip redundant, because the objective for which the party existed would be decided directly by the British people.

Which is roughly what happened. Farage’s party didn’t even get the kitemark as part of the official Leave campaign. As the Dick Van Dyke of the one-man band, Farage has been one of the prominent characters campaigning for Leave, but his party has ceased to be visible in its own right.

Indeed, Farage has been more visible than the official Leave campaign intended. One of the striking moments of the substructure of the referendum was the late-night wobbly thrown by Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, when he found out that ITV had booked Farage to appear on the same programme as the Prime Minister. Cummings put out a Vote Leave statement saying: “ITV has effectively joined the official In campaign and there will be consequences for its future – the people in No 10 won’t be there for long.”

Cummings was well aware that Farage was engaged in an undeclared competition with Jeremy Corbyn to see who could do the most damage to his own side. The reason Vote Leave didn’t want Farage anywhere near its campaign was that it knows he is a repelling magnet for undecided voters. He inspires enthusiastic support from Ukippers – those with whom he hasn’t had any personal dealings, anyway – but his appeal is to a tightly defined minority demographic.

So what happens to him and his party after Friday? Ukip continues to attract more support in opinion polls than the 13 per cent share of the vote it won in the general election – in ComRes’s survey for The Independent last weekend it was on 19 per cent – but it will become increasingly hard to see what the point of the party is.

If the British people vote to leave the EU, it would be a Conservative government and a Conservative prime minister – probably Boris Johnson – charged with putting into effect the central purpose of Ukip.

If, on the other hand, we vote to stay, politics would continue in recognisable form, a politics in which there would be a role for Ukip, but a minor one. The party could carry on as a vehicle for protest against immigration among Labour supporters in the north, and as the repository for nostalgia among disaffected Tories in the south. But the fundamental question of immigration – free movement of EU workers – would have been decided by the referendum. Meanwhile, the questions that once animated Tory defectors, gay marriage and wind turbines, are losing their power.

Farage has shown himself surprisingly resilient in Ukip’s long haul from irrelevance to today’s Indian summer, in which he can claim credit for having secured the referendum. But that haul has been punctuated by periods, including a few days after the general election when he resigned as party leader and then unresigned, when he abandoned the struggle.

It is hard to imagine that he would set off on another long march of protest towards the distant prospect of a second referendum.

But, of course, we won’t forget who he was. Journalists are still full of stories about how he would suggest going for a drink at 11am, saying, “The sun will be over the yard-arm somewhere in the Empire.” No, we won’t forget this throwback to the old City of London, the metals trader nostalgic for the boozy, unregulated days before the Big Bang, the opponent of the EU who is married to a German, and who drives a Swedish car.

But on Friday, win or lose, his career in British politics is over.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?

Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?

Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?