Bitter campaign lies ahead for Kerry after euphoria of sweeping victory

Rupert Cornwell
Thursday 04 March 2004 01:00 GMT
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Now the comes hard part for John Kerry. Having duly clinched the Democratic nomination with a near-sweep on "Super Tuesday", the Massachusetts senator yesterday entered what will surely be a bitter eight-month general election campaign, to unseat a sitting President with unprecedented financial resources and a team that will stop at nothing to secure a second term.

After one of the most remarkable political comebacks in modern days, Mr Kerry has scant time to savour his triumph. Today the Bush-Cheney campaign launches a $4m (£2.2m) barrage of national TV advertising, a mere drop from a campaign war chest of $143m, to be augmented by a fundraising blitz Mr Bush began yesterday in California and Texas.

The first ads will portray the President as a decisive and steady leader who has turned the economy around. But quickly, Bush strategists will focus on Mr Kerry's perceived weak points, depicting him as an archetypal "Massachusetts liberal" and waffler who cannot make up his mind on the issues, among them the war in Iraq.

If Mr Kerry is to hit back effectively, he must overcome two big handicaps. The first is money, plain in the urgent e-mail appeal by the campaign last night for contributions. The second is the loss of the free publicity of a primary campaign in which every Democratic candidate battered Mr Bush, driving the President's approval ratings to the lowest of his term.

And "Super Tuesday" ec-lipsed the expectations of even the most Kerry fervent fans. "Tonight the message could not be clearer across our country," he told exultant supporters at a victory rally here as the results flowed in on Tuesday evening, "Change is coming to America."

Of the 10 states which voted, he lost in only one, the tiny New England state of Vermont which gave a first and only victory to Howard Dean, its former governor, the one-time front-runner who pulled out of the contest a fortnight ago, after a collapse that was the mirror image of Mr Kerry's ascent.

John Edwards, Mr Kerry's lone serious challenger, came close only on his home southern turf of Georgia, but fell short even there. Everywhere else Mr Kerry won with landslides in six states (including the biggest prizes of California and New York) by margins of between 30 and 50 points.

The North Carolina senator abruptly decided on Tuesday night to return to his home town of Raleigh, where he announced his formal withdrawal from the race. His defeat was sealed early in the evening, when Mr Kerry rolled to a comfortable victory in the pivotal industrial state of Ohio, where Mr Edwards had expected his anti-free trade, pro-jobs message to resonate. Instead, Democratic voters in Ohio made clear the more battle-tested Mr Kerry, with his knowledge of national security issues and glittering Vietnam war record, was the candidate best qualified to succeed in driving Mr Bush from the White House.

The Massachusetts senator presides over a party more united than ever, after a primary season remarkable for the absence of intra-party bloodletting, symbolised by the lavish praise victor and vanquished heaped on each other after the nomination contest was settled.

But the scale of Mr Kerry's triumph - just three months after his candidacy had been all but written off - masks alarming weaknesses. Exit polls in several states which held open primaries on Tuesday showed Mr Edwards was more attractive to the independent and "soft" Republican voters the Democrats must win over if they are to prevail in November.

Many senior Democrats are looking for a Kerry-Edwards "dream ticket" that would combine the Lincolnesque gravitas of Mr Kerry with the sunny optimism of Mr Edwards, and his presumed ability to sway one or two of the southern states swept by Mr Bush in 2000.

Some party elders also worry that the relatively amicable primary season may not have put Mr Kerry sufficiently to test. The tight calendar has produced a nominee early, allowing Democrats maximum time to focus on Mr Bush. But it may also have stampeded the party into a choice too soon.

Mr Kerry's recovery has been astounding. By November, when he fired his campaign manager and other senior staff, his national support was in single figures. The manager was replaced by Mary Beth Cahill, a former chief of staff to Edward Kennedy, his fellow Massachusetts senator, who established a clear command structure.

Then Mr Kerry, opposed by some of his advisers, staked all on Iowa, whose caucuses on 19 January kicked off the primary season. Helped by a series of missteps by Mr Dean, he scored an unexpected victory, and never looked back.

IN THE RACE FOR THE RUNNING MATE'S JOB

John Edwards

The early favourite. A Kerry-Edwards ticket appears to offer perfect balance; a northerner and a southerner, the grave and lofty Mr Kerry and the charismatic Mr Edwards. But Mr Edwards may not be able to deliver the south, and relations may not be as warm as they appear.

Richard Gephardt

Former House Democratic leader, whose own White House bid ended in Iowa. He is on excellent terms with Mr Kerry, and could help the Democrats carry the crucial state of Missouri, which since 1904 has voted with the winner in every presidential election but one.

Bill Richardson

Governor of New Mexico, another battleground state. A former US ambassador to the UN with a high international profile, who served as a mediator over North Korea's nuclear programme. His Hispanic origins might help in Arizona and Nevada, which the Democrats hope to capture.

Bill Clinton

Hillary is considered too divisive and might overshadow the nominee, "so why not Bill?" a New York Times writer asked yesterday. He is a talented campaigner and a natural for foreign assignments, he argued, adding: "People might even pay to watch Bill Clinton debate Dick Cheney."

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