Democrats look good in race for governorships

For a view of American politics free of the distorting prism of terrorism and Iraq, the state governors' elections are the best place to go. The issues are the ones which might otherwise have mattered in Washington this year: budget deficits, the economy, and education. Not surprisingly, the Democrats are looking good.

Of the 50 governorships, 36 are at stake this year. Twenty-three are held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats and a couple – Maine and Minnesota – by independents (though perhaps not for much longer). A net gain of three would leave Democrats occupying most of the governors' mansions. At worst, they are likely to capture two; if all goes well, they might win six.

Under the highly devolved US constitution, Governors run most things in their state. Foreign policy, defence and national economic policy are obviously matters for federal government; unless otherwise specified, however, the rest is for the states. States, for instance, account for 90 per cent of public spending on education, the quality and funding of which is a vital issue across the country.

Like national elections, governors' races are becoming increasingly expensive. In California, where no contest ever came cheap, the incumbent Democrat, Gray Davis, has had to raise over $50m (£32m). In New York, another of the "big four" states choosing its chief executive in 2002, the independent candidate, Tom Golisano, could spend as much in his bid to unseat George Pataki. Much the same goes for the Democrat Tony Sanchez in Texas, as he tries to capture the job that was the launch pad for Mr Bush's bid for the White House.

Indeed, four of the last five Presidents have been drawn from the ex-governors club. Often, the business of running what amounts to a mini-White House in a single state, and dealing with a sometimes hostile state legislature, provides a better training for the real thing than decades of legislative experience on Capitol Hill.

This year's other races offer a host of intriguing subplots – not least in Minnesota, where independents are vying to hang on the governorship being vacated by the former wrestler Jesse Ventura, that curious throwback to the carefree America of pre-11 September 2001.

Women, too, are very much in the mix. In otherwise staunchly Democrat Hawaii, a Republican woman is poised to win. In half a dozen other states, Democrat women are well placed. The most eye-catching battle is perhaps in Maryland, where Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, daughter of Robert F Kennedy, is fighting to prove that her magical family name has not lost all of its clout.

But all eyes are ultimately on Jeb Bush in Florida, the final "big four" state. With a decent record, and 11 presidential visits in 18 months, George W's younger brother ought to be safe. But Bill McBride, the sort of folksy arm-round-the-shoulder Democrat who fares well in Florida, is making the contest uncomfortably close.

THE STATES WHERE THE BATTLES WILL BE CLOSEST

Florida: Just a few months ago, most observers would have reckoned the President's younger brother, Jeb, would be a shoe-in for re-election in the Sunshine State. Now they are not so sure. While Mr Bush scores heavily on recognition, he also attracts critics for the same reason. His Democratic challenger, Bill McBride, had not been expected to win his party's nomination, but in recent weeks he has been making the gap between him and Mr Bush ever narrower. Mr Bush, who may have lost ground over his daughter's recent drug problems, is probably going to squeeze home, but this is likely to be one of the closest battles.

California: Gray Davis, elected in 1998, was only the fourth Democratic governor elected in the 20th Century. The Vietnam veteran won by a landslide, taking advantage of mistakes made by big-money opponents who ran negative campaigns. His slogan was "Experience money can't buy." Davis undoubtedly lost support as a result of the power black-outs last summer. But despite that, it seems that he will probably win re-election: his Republican challenger for Governor of America's biggest state, Bill Simon, has had to defend himself over his financial dealings.

New York: Republican George Pataki is seeking a third term as Governor and most observers reckon he will get what he wants. Democrat Carl McCall – who took his party's nomination after last month's withdrawal of Bill Clinton favourite Andrew Cuomo – is considered a fair challenger. But the opposition vote has been somewhat complicated by the presence of Tom Golisano, a self-made businessman, as an independent candidate. Both face a tough battle – recent polls suggest Mr Pataki is going to keep his post, widely held to be one of the most powerful in the country.

Texas: Governor Rick Perry took over the state's top position after George Bush resigned once he was assured the Presidency. Mr Perry had previously been the lieutenant, or deputy, governor, a powerful position, perhaps as influential as the Governor, because he presided over the State Senate and controlled its proceedings. Most pundits think Mr Perry will win, but the Democrats are hopeful that the businessman and oil tycoon Tony Sanchez can cause an upset. Popular support for Mr Bush is likely to help his former deputy.

Hawaii: The race for governor in Hawaii is a battle for firsts: the Democrats hope to elect Mazie Hirono, who would be the first Japanese-born American to win a US governorship. Her opponent Linda Lingle is vying to win the seat for Republicans for the first time in four decades. Whoever wins, Hawaii voters will elect their first woman Governor. Lingle, a former two-term mayor of Maui, has led in public polls over Lieutenant Governor Hirono. Hirono's love-hate relationship with sitting Governor Benjamin Cayetano has hampered her efforts to build support.