Super Tuesday: Four things to watch now Klobuchar and Buttigieg are backing Biden

What to expect now that the moderate field has narrowed

The days between the South Carolina primary on Saturday and Super Tuesday have already been some of the most tumultuous of the 2020 Democratic primary, with former vice president Joe Biden bouncing back into a competitive position with delegate leader Senator Bernie Sanders, and Senator Amy Klobuchar, former South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg and entrepreneur Tom Steyer dropping out of the race.

On the eve of Super Tuesday, what last week looked like a cluster of candidates vying desperately just to be viable to earn delegates in several of the states has now transformed into what may become a three way race between Mr Sanders, Mr Biden and former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg.

Senator Elizabeth Warren and Representative Tulsi Gabbard are also still in the race, though Ms Gabbard’s polling predicts she will not be competitive in any Super Tuesday state and Ms Warren’s polls suggest she is only competitive in her home state of Massachusetts where she currently trails Mr Sanders.

Biden Boost

With both Ms Klobuchar and Mr Buttigieg out of the race, it’s likely that their supporters - largely moderate Democrats and potentially moderate Republicans - will gravitate towards Mr Biden come Super Tuesday.

In fact, that’s the entire strategy. Ms Klobuchar immediately endorsed Mr Biden upon dropping out, and Mr Buttigieg, was due to do so on Monday night. That move puts a lot of momentum behind Mr Biden as the main moderate of choice.

Minnesota

Prior to her exit from the race, Ms Klobuchar was just barely edging out Mr Sanders as the most likely to win her home state of Minnesota. With Ms Klobuchar gone, her substantial support in the state will have to shift.

For those voting for Ms Klobuchar based on her politics, it’s likely they’ll migrate to Mr Biden. Voters supporting Ms Klobuchar because of her name recognition may wind up moving to Mr Bloomberg.

Either way, the race in Minnesota has transformed from a tight race between Mr Sanders and Ms Klobuchar to potentially a tight race between the senator and Mr Biden.

Anti-Bernie momentum

The point of all of the shifting since South Carolina is simple; Mr Buttigieg and Ms Klobuchar didn’t all of a sudden have changes of heart and decide that yes, Mr Biden would be a better president than they would. As moderate members of the party, they are working together to consolidate the moderate voters in the country to stop Mr Sanders.

Though it was obvious from the outset it is crystal clear now: the Democratic party at large is declaring war on Mr Sanders, his movement and his policies. What’s worse for Mr Sanders is that Ms Warren, despite having no clear path forward for a possible nomination, has refused to exit the race. Though it’s unlikely Mr Sanders would capture all of Ms Warren’s support, it’s likely a significant portion of them would rally to join his ranks.

Bloomberg

The wildcard in tomorrow’s race is former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg. Tomorrow will be his first - and depending on his performance and the performance of Mr Biden, potentially last - appearance on a ballot in the 2020 Democratic primary race. Mr Bloomberg has spent more than $200 million on advertising in Super Tuesday states to make himself a household name prior to the election.

Presently, Mr Bloomberg serves only to take votes away from Mr Biden and to potentially scoop up whatever voters only make a decision based on name recognition.

However, there may be some merit to that strategy. Prior to Ms Klobuchar’s exit from the race, Mr Bloomberg’s polling numbers rose and eventually flattened out as early victories by Mr Sanders and a poor debate performance in Nevada stymied his momentum. Despite his stall, however, Mr Bloomberg was still competitive in several Super Tuesday states, threatening to eat up delegates that might have otherwise gone to Mr Biden.