Thousands of flights would be cancelled by no-deal Brexit as departures capped at 2018 levels

Exclusive: Europe says no country can increase flights to and from the UK, even though many more are promised

A no-deal Brexit could cause the cancellation of thousands of flights between the UK and the European Union next year, because departures would be capped at 2018 levels.

Disappointed passengers who thought they had firm bookings to Spain, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Greece and other destinations could find their tickets cancelled. While the cost would be automatically refunded, they would then need to compete for scarce seats and could face higher fares.

The crucial condition in the European legislation reads: “The total seasonal capacity to be provided by UK air carriers for routes between the United Kingdom and each member state shall not exceed the total number of frequencies operated by those carriers on those routes during respectively the IATA winter and summer seasons of the year of 2018.”

In other words: the number of flights from the UK to each member state cannot increase from the levels prevailing this summer. If there were 200 weekly flights on UK airlines between Britain and Cyprus in 2018, no British carrier could add departures.

Air travel from the UK to the EU was expected to expand significantly next year, with British Airways, easyJet and Jet2 among the British carriers announcing dozens of new routes and increased frequencies, amounting to thousands of extra flights in summer 2019 and the winter season 2019-20.

Hours before the EU revealed its conditions for flights to continue, BA announced a new route from London City to Split in Croatia. While it would be for the government and airlines to decide which flights should be cut from the schedules, additional links such as this could be prime candidates.

Yet the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, welcomed the proposals and said: “Whether for business or leisure, travellers can continue to book with confidence.”

Aviation and travel industry bodies also appeared unconcerned. Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, the industry association that represents 13 UK carriers, said: “This is yet further clarity that flights will continue between the UK and EU even in the event of a no-deal Brexit, as we have always said.

“Combined with the excellent progress Government has made in concluding bilateral agreements with third countries – including the United States and Canada – passengers should have every confidence in booking holidays and trips for travel on 30 March and beyond.”

The chief executive of the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA), Mark Tanzer, said: “UK citizens take over 50 million trips a year to Europe and it is the number one place people plan to visit next year. Today both the UK government and the European Commission reiterated that flights will continue to operate between the UK and the EU after Brexit, and we welcome the transport secretary’s clear statement that travellers can continue to book with confidence.”

The commission’s plans specifically rule out the opportunity for individual states, such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, to negotiate extra flights individually.

Countries such as Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt stand to benefit if additional flights were displaced to destinations outside the EU. Dublin Airport could expect to gain in the event that extra flights from Belfast were disallowed.

One possible work-around for easyJet would be to ascribe the increase in capacity to its Austrian subsidiary, easyJet Europe, which was set up to cope with the effects of Brexit.

An easyJet spokesperson said: “We remain confident flights will continue, even if the outcome of talks is a no-deal Brexit, and have already put in place our post-Brexit structure which ensures easyJet is able to maintain its network.”

The other big question is: whether the role of Heathrow as a hub would continue in the same way as it does now.

The treaty is silent on “sixth freedom” rights which allow British Airways to sell, for example, tickets in Germany from Berlin via Heathrow to New York. While BA could theoretically sell tickets for each segment separately, it would go against established aviation norms – and dramatically increase the cost, due to air passenger duty.