The Commons ban that could hand another victory to ‘lucky general’ Starmer

The prospect of a by-election victory is not the only good fortune to have befallen the Labour leader, writes John Rentoul

The idea of Starmer as a lucky general reminds us that the Labour leader’s story is an extraordinary one (PA)

It wasn’t Napoleon who said: “Give me lucky generals.” It was Cardinal Mazarin, chief minister to Louis XIII and Louis XIV. He said the question to ask of a general is not, “Est-il habile?” Is he skilful? but “Est-il heureux?” Is he lucky?

Keir Starmer is a lucky general. MPs voted today to confirm Margaret Ferrier’s suspension from the Commons for 30 days, for breaching Covid-19 regulations, which opens the way for a by-election in her Rutherglen and Hamilton West constituency. The Scottish National Party MP admitted breaking lockdown law by travelling after testing positive for coronavirus.

A by-election in that seat is eminently winnable for Labour, which is enjoying a revival in Scotland as the SNP struggles with the implosion of Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership. It is just what the Labour spin doctor ordered: a chance to broadcast to Scotland that the party is back in contention after a period when it surrendered the role of opposing the SNP to the Conservatives. And it will be a chance to broadcast to middle England that Labour can credibly win a UK election without having to rely on the SNP for a majority in the Commons. This will help to soften the “coalition of chaos” charge that I continue to insist was effective against Ed Miliband in 2015, despite academic analysis purporting to find no evidence for it, which I think is like trying to quantify gut instinct.