Election catch-up: What are the chances of Ed Miliband becoming prime minister?

A straw poll in the Westminster bubble gives it to Miliband by 55 per cent to 45 per cent

1. Apologies for the late running of this service. I was at an excellent breakfast event at ComRes to hear Andrew Hawkins, ComRes chairman, and Gary Gibbon, Channel 4 News political editor, discuss the election.

Gibbon identified the most striking moment of the campaign so far as the start of David Cameron’s interview with Jeremy Paxman on 26 March. The look of uncertainty in the Prime Minister’s eyes as he was asked about food banks betrayed how nervous he was.

“Food Bank? What is the Food Bank? Do I have an account there?” was Gibbon’s uncharitable interpretation of what Cameron was thinking.

He thought the Conservative campaign had been sterile and bloodless, although Cameron had been right to avoid a head-to-head TV debate with Ed Miliband.

2. The event was well attended, and Hawkins conducted straw polls of the audience. Overwhelmingly, they thought Labour had run the best campaign and, slightly less overwhelmingly, they thought the Conservatives would win most seats. The final vote, on whether Cameron or Miliband would be prime minister by the time of the Queen’s Speech on 27 May, was close, about 55 per cent for Miliband and 45 per cent for Cameron.

3. These figures seem to match the probabilities calculated yesterday by Jack Blumenau of Election Forecast, who gave Miliband a 55 per cent chance of securing a majority with the help of the SNP, plus Plaid Cymru, the SDLP, Labour’s sister party in Northern Ireland, and the Greens, all of which are committed to blocking a Conservative government.

But Cameron’s chance of staying on as Prime Minister is rather lower than the remaining 45 per cent. If the anti-Tory bloc fails to achieve a majority, Cameron would probably still need the support of the Liberal Democrats – and possibly of the DUP as well – to survive.

He has the advantage, as a sitting prime minister, of negotiating from a position of power. The Lib Dem leadership would probably agree to support an EU referendum in return for a long wish-list from their manifesto, but selling the continuation of the coalition to a special party conference, as the Lib Dems would have to do, might be hard.

So I give Miliband a 60-40 chance.

4. Boris Johnson, on the other hand, says that the opinion polls will turn in the “last 10 days”. Perhaps he means in the last 10 days of the year, when he is elected leader of the Conservative Party.

5. Useful post by Colin Talbot, Professor of Government, University of Manchester, on the restricted scope for the SNP to amend Labour legislation. The short version: only the Government can propose tax or spending measures, and these can be amended only by cutting spending or by lowering or removing taxes – not by increasing either.

6. And finally, thanks to Matt Chorley for the latest canvassing news:

“My mobile phone won’t work in the house so I need to stand outside the front door. Great reception on the doorstep.”