Kim's olive branch: North Korea's ruler shows himself a master of surprises

Not long after Washington vowed to take unspecified revenge on North Korea for the devastating cyber attack on Sony Pictures, the North Korean dictator has again displayed his capacity to unsettle his opponents. Taking a break from firing off ear-splitting threats, Kim Jong-un used a new year address to declare his interest in new talks with South Korea and even a full-blown summit. Devoting much of his speech to reconciliation, he called for a “big shift” in relations on the peninsula.

To old Korea hands, this is vintage stuff from a regime that specialises in being unpredictable. Like his father and grandfather, Kim Jong-un masquerades as a lion one minute and a pussycat the next, depending on whether roaring or purring better serves the goal of keeping the US and the South guessing. Playing on South Korea’s hopes of unification is always a good card, as it creates divisions between the South and the US, which is deeply suspicious of the North’s good faith in that field.

The unknown factor in the latest developments is China’s role. Without Beijing’s support, the bankrupt North Korean state would have collapsed. It is China – frightened by the prospect of a powerful, united Korea right on its doorstep – that keeps the pudgy dictator on his throne. However much North Korea’s antics embarrass them, the Chinese put up with it.

But that does not mean they cannot put in a word – and the latest pyrotechnics between Pyongyang and Washington will not have amused them. One question is whether the West is doing all it can to persuade China to rein in its protégé. If Beijing were to threaten Pyongyang with consequences, Mr Kim might behave very differently. China may feel no interest in doing any such thing – but we should hope that this avenue is at least being explored.