Russia’s armed forces have disgraced themselves in Ukraine, and their leaders proved themselves incompetent. That much is clear, and dangerous, because it makes the Kremlin even more desperate for victory, and even more reliant on terrorising the civilian population of Ukraine, and bandying around the threat of using nuclear weaponry.
Having failed in conventional combat under the established rules of war, they can only prevail, so they think, by resorting to barbarism and even positing the destruction of the planet in a thermonuclear conflagration. In such a circumstance there would be no Ukraine, nor Russia nor, more to the point, Vladimir Putin, which means that he is bluffing.
As the west has scaled up its response to the Russian atrocities – which have persuaded wavering Nato allies to export arms to Ukraine – the chances of Russian victory are receding. The latest bravado from President Putin seems to be that he is now determined to take control of the whole of the region, likely including Moldova, rather than merely settling for Crimea and the Donbas region, as was previously assumed. He is doubling down on his imperial ambitions, at least rhetorically.
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