Priti Patel faces a severe test of her political skills if she is going to survive in the long term

The home secretary unveiled a post-Brexit immigration policy that is a bit more relaxed than previously advertised, yet sounded tough, writes John Rentoul

Priti Patel is popular with Conservative members, but has work to do to convince the public (Getty Images)

Priti Patel looked positively cheerful in the House of Commons yesterday, bantering across the despatch box with Conor McGinn, a shadow home office minister. “No I have not sacked them all,” she said when he accused her of having to recruit police officers to replace the ones her government had got rid of.

She has shown remarkable survival skills. She came back from being sacked by Theresa May for running the Department for International Development as a rival foreign office – no more of that nonsense under Boris Johnson: the foreign office is swallowing DfID whole.

Her tenure as home secretary was hanging in the balance at the start of the year, after Sir Philip Rutnam, her top civil servant, resigned to sue the government for constructive dismissal, accusing her of bullying. But she is still there, and the rumour is that the argument inside Whitehall is only about whether the inquiry into her alleged breach of the ministerial code will give her a mild telling-off or a complete exoneration.

This week she continued to show the acumen that got her where she is today, unveiling a post-Brexit immigration policy which, despite being a bit more relaxed than previously advertised, sounded tough, with a headline about stopping EU criminals coming into the UK.

Jonathan Portes of King’s College London welcomed the “significant liberalisation” of the new rules for non-EU workers, with lower thresholds for salary and qualifications, and confirmation that the government will not impose a quota on arrivals. The restoration of the two-year post-study work visa for non-EU students graduating from UK universities was also an important recognition of the harm an overly restrictive policy would do to one of the UK’s most successful sectors, which has been hard hit by the coronavirus.

Critics of the government still found plenty to complain about, particularly that the new “health and care visa” will not actually grant visas to care workers (unless they are “senior”). It was interesting that Patel left the defence of that policy to Kevin Foster, one of her own junior ministers, in the Commons. He said: “People will look at what has happened over the past few months and surely they will not think that our vision for the social care sector should be to carry on looking abroad to recruit at or near the minimum wage. We need to be prioritising jobs in this country.”

That is a line that will probably strike a chord with public opinion: that at a time of high unemployment we should be training our own care workers. If so, expect to hear more of it. Patel is lagging in public popularity, and her few performances at the daily coronavirus briefing did not go well, with her mangling of the numbers becoming part of the folklore.

But she is still popular with Conservative Party members, having reinforced her position with a vigorous counter-attack last month against Labour MPs on the question of whether the government understands racism.

The key to her long-term survival, however, will be whether she can manage the contradiction faced by every Conservative home secretary before her, which is to convince both the public and the Tory party that she is restricting immigration as much as possible, while making concessions to the needs of an open economy that depends on relatively free movement for its prosperity.

Her next test is only five months away, when her new immigration system meets the reality of ending EU free movement. No one who knows anything about immigration policy thinks the home office or its Border Force will be ready in time, which means delays, confusion and temporary arrangements are likely.

That is going to stretch her political skill to the limit.