Channel migrant crossings fall by a third but ‘expected to rise in 2024’

Migrant numbers crossing the Channel fell by a third between 2022 and 2023

The number of migrants crossing the Channel has fallen year-on-year for the first time since records began, but “higher numbers” are expected to make the journey in 2024.

Some 29,437 people undertook the crossing in 2023, a 36 per cent fall on the number that did so in 2022. However, unions have warned that the decrease was likely a “glitch”, and that “higher numbers” are expected in 2024.

Rishi Sunak is under pressure to meet his pledge to “stop the boats” after the number of people arriving soared. January will see fresh legislation put before parliament in a bid to begin deportation flights to Rwanda, where Mr Sunak wants to send asylum seekers to under the terms of a new treaty.

The number of migrants who made the perilous crossing in 2023 was higher than 2021’s total of 28,526, but lower than the unusually high number in 2022. A record 45,774 crossings were recorded in 2022.

Some 29,437 migrants made the Channel crossing on small boats in 2023 (PA)

The Immigration Services Union, which represents Border Force staff, has predicted that while the number in 2024 may not climb back up to the 2022 spike, it is likely to increase.

Lucy Moreton, the union’s professional officer, told the BBC: “The planning assumption for 2024 is that 2023 has been unusually low.

“There have been other confounding factors – we have had particularly high winds, we have had a larger number of days where it is less likely that we are going to get migrants in boats.

“But we have also had much larger boats, much more seaworthy boats, so the planning assumption is that this [the 2023 total] is a glitch.”

A view of small boats and engines used to cross the Channel by people thought to be migrants, at a warehouse facility in Dover, Kent (PA)

Ms Moreton continued: “Will we seek the peak that we saw in 2022? Maybe not, but certainly more than we have seen in the last year.” She warned that both Border Force and the country as a whole would need to prepare for higher numbers arriving.

In July last year, the government introduced sweeping asylum reforms under the Illegal Migration Act – meaning that anyone who arrives in the UK illegally will not be able to stay. They will instead be detained and removed to their home country or to a safe third country.

The government only has one working deal for the removal of migrants to a third country – the Rwanda scheme. This has been blighted by legal problems, which the government is attempting to bypass with extra legislation.

The Immigration Services Union has warned that there will be an increase in crossings in 2024 (PA)

The Illegal Migration Act has not yet been implemented, but the government had hoped to start applying the new rules this spring.

Almost 40,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats since Mr Sunak became prime minister. The number of migrants crossing the Channel has steadily increased since 299 people were detected in 2018. There were 1,843 crossings recorded in 2019, and 8,466 in 2020, according to the Home Office.

August 2022 was the highest month on record for crossings, when 8,574 people arrived in the UK after making the journey.