This was a nakedly political Budget – and it won’t save the Tory party

People view the government as taking with one hand and giving back a little bit of it with another – Andrew Grice warns that the Conservatives have run out of time to change the course of public opinion

Hunt avoided headlines about a further round of austerity by not imposing even more cuts in public spending (UK Parliament/AFP/Getty)

Jeremy Hunt’s Budget won’t save the Conservatives from election defeat. We don’t need a crystal ball to tell us that because we can read the book: the first two percentage point cut in national insurance, in the autumn statement last November, didn’t dent Labour’s commanding lead in the opinion polls. Nor will today’s repeat.

Why? People know the overall tax burden is rising to its highest level for 70 years. This is not an abstract, academic point: voters feel it. Hunt’s two national insurance reductions, giving back £18bn, will nowhere near compensate for the six-year freeze in income tax thresholds and allowances, which will eventually bring in more than £50bn a year.

The polls and focus groups tell us that many people will view the government as taking with one hand and giving back a little bit of it with another. “They take £10 and give back £2,” was a common response to the autumn statement. The verdict on the Budget will be the same. And the public know that more tax increases are coming: the five per cent rise in council tax bills in April will be bitterly resented, especially as many local authorities will charge more for less as they cut services – largely as a result of the squeeze imposed by central government.