Almost half of UK novelists fear AI will replace their work entirely

‘There is widespread concern from novelists that generative AI trained on vast amounts of fiction will undermine the value of writing,’ the study states

Almost half of published novelists in the UK are grappling with the profound fear that artificial intelligence could entirely usurp their creative work, a new report suggests.

The findings, from a Cambridge University study that anonymously surveyed 258 novelists, 32 literary agents, and 42 fiction publishing professionals, paint a stark picture of an industry in flux.

A significant 59 per cent of novelists reported their work has been used to train large language models (LLMs) without permission or any payment.

This unauthorised use is already impacting livelihoods, with more than a third (39 per cent) stating their income has suffered due to generative AI, often through the loss of other work that supports their novel writing.

The outlook remains bleak for many, as 85 per cent anticipate a future decline in earnings, and 51 per cent explicitly fear that "AI is likely to displace their work entirely".

Dr Clementine Collett, a report author from Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy, highlighted the widespread anxiety.

"There is widespread concern from novelists that generative AI trained on vast amounts of fiction will undermine the value of writing and compete with human novelists," she stated.

The report identifies genre authors as being particularly vulnerable to AI (PA)

Dr Collett added that "many novelists felt uncertain there will be an appetite for complex, long-form writing in years to come," stressing that "novels are a core part of the creative industries and the basis for countless films, television shows and video games."

The report identifies genre authors as particularly vulnerable, with 66 per cent of respondents listing romance writers as "extremely threatened," followed by thriller (61 per cent) and crime (60 per cent) authors.

Some participants even envisioned a dystopian future where human-written novels become a "luxury item" amidst a flood of cheap, AI-generated fiction.

Despite these anxieties, the overall sentiment within UK fiction is not entirely anti-AI, with 80 per cent acknowledging its societal benefits. A third of novelists (33 per cent) currently use AI for "non-creative" tasks like information searches.

However, literary creatives are united in their call for stronger copyright enforcement, informed consent, and fair remuneration for the use of their work. They also demand transparency from big tech companies, alongside government support.

Professor Gina Neff, executive director of the Minderoo Centre, asserted: "Our creative industries are not expendable collateral damage in the race to develop AI. They are national treasures worth defending."

The vast majority (86 per cent) advocate for an "opt-in" principle for AI training, with nearly half (48 per cent) favouring collective licensing managed by an industry body.

The report, published in partnership with the Institute for the Future of Work and called The Impact of Generative AI on the Novel, will be published on the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy website: https://www.mctd.ac.uk/