SAG Awards: How accurately do Screen Actors Guild nominations predict the Oscars race?

The SAG Awards have been used as a forecasting tool for the Academy Awards – but how accurate is the comparison?

The SAG Awards nominations will soon be revealed – and they may help paint a more detailed picture of what this year’s Oscars race may look like.

Over the years, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have acquired a reputation as a forecasting tool for the Academy Awards, with the idea that scoring nominations – or a trophy – during the former is a good omen for the latter.

There are a few differences between the two ceremonies. The SAG Awards recognise people, not the works they star in. The Oscars, of course, do both. Another discrepancy: the SAG Awards acknowledge both the small and the big screen while the Academy Awards focus solely on films.

Still, categories from both sides can be matched and compared. The SAG Awards and the Oscars both include nods to a male lead, a female lead, a male supporting actor, and a female supporting actor.

There is also a correlation between the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the SAG Awards and the Best Picture nod at the Oscars.

Here is what the past six years can teach us about the parallels between the SAG and the Academy Awards:

Look out for the men: Twice over the past six years, the SAG Awards and the Oscars singled out the same five male actors in lead roles

The most recent occurrence was in during the 2017 ceremony, when Denzel Washington, Casey Affleck, Andrew Garfield, Ryan Gosling, and Viggo Mortensen were all up for both the Academy Award for Best Actor and the SAG Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role.

The other time was in 2016, with Leonardo DiCaprio, Johnny Depp, Bryan Cranston, Michael Fassbender, and Eddie Redmayne.

Three other times, each list was only different from the other by one name. During last year’s ceremonies, Gary Oldman, Timothée Chalamet, Daniel Kaluuya and Denzel Washington were all nominated in the two categories. The SAG Awards’ list wrapped up with James Franco, while the Oscars went for Daniel Day-Lewis.

The same thing happened in 2015, when the SAG Awards and the Oscars agreed on Eddie Redmayne, Steve Carell, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Michael Keaton. The Academy Awards singled out Bradley Cooper when the SAG Awards handed a nomination to Jake Gyllenhaal.

2013 was another similar case, with Daniel Day-Lewis, Bradley Cooper, John Hawkes, and Denzel Washington all up for the same nods. Hugh Jackman was nominated for a SAG Award while Joaquin Phoenix scored an Academy Award nomination.

The shortlists for lead female actors haven’t once been identical

The SAG Awards don’t appear to be as accurate a predictor when leaf female roles are concerned.

Still, this year’s SAG nominations might give us an impression of who might land on the Academy’s shortlist.

Three times over the past six years, there has only been one name differentiating the SAG’s class of nominees from the Oscars’.

Last year, both ceremonies agreed to single out Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins, Margot Robbie, and Soirse Ronan. The fifth name on the SAG Awards’ list was Judi Dench, while the Academy nominated Meryl Streep.

In 2015, Julianne Moore, Felicity Jones, Rosamund Pike, and Reese Witherspoon all made the cut. The SAG nominated Jennifer Aniston, was Marion Cotillard rounded out the shortlist on the Academy Awards’ side.

In 2014, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Judi Dench, and Meryl Streep were shortlisted on both sides. Emma Thompson was nominated for a SAG Award, while Amy Adams rounded up the Academy’s shortlist.

The situation when it comes to male supporting roles is… complicated

Some years, both lists are so different one has to wonder if the SAG and the Academy both saw the same films.

Case in point: 2016, when both institutions only agreed on Christian Bale and Mark Rylance. Idris Elba, Michael Shannon, and Jacob Tremblay received nods from the SAG side, while Tom Hardy, Mark Ruffalo, and Sylvester Stallone made up the bulk of the Oscars’ shortlist.

But there’s also 2015, when the SAG Awards and the Oscars had the same five nominees for the male supporting role categories: JK Simmons, Robert Duvall, Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, and Mark Ruffalo.

Perhaps the most accurate representation of how these two categories usually interact can be found in 2018 and 2017: both years, the SAG and the Academy agreed on four of their five shortlisted names.

In 2018, Sam Rockwell, William Dafoe, Woody Harrelson and Richard Jenkins were all up for both SAG and Academy Awards. Steve Carell scored a SAG nomination while Christopher Plummer was nominated for an Oscar.

In 2017, both lists featured Mahershala Ali, Jeff Bridges, Dev Patel, and Lucas Hedges. The SAG Awards handed the fifth nomination to Hugh Grant, while the Academy went for Michael Shannon.

But do keep an eye on female supporting role nominees

The SAG Awards do appear to be a useful forecasting tool as far as female supporting roles are concerned.

Over the past six years, both lists have been identical once and have had four out of five names in common twice.

Viola Davis Naomie Harris, Nicole Kidman, Octavia Spencer, and Michelle Williams made up both shortlists in 2017.

Alicia Vikander, Rooney Mara, Rachel McAdams, and Kate Winslet all made the cut in 2016, with the addition of Helen Mirren on the SAG Awards’ side and Jennifer Jason Leigh for the Academy.

In 2015, Patricia Arquette, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, and Meryl Streep were all nominated on both sides. Naomi Watts landed a spot on the SAG’s shortlist, while Laura Dern earned a nomination from the Academy.

The two remaining years – 2018 and 2014 – still had three out of five names in common, making the female supporting roles category one to follow closely.

What about the movies?

The SAG and the Academy are like two very opinionated friends who sometimes go to the cinema together. Every once in a while, they will agree, but at other times, their views are simply irreconcilable.

Adding to the confusion is the fact that the SAG selects five films for its Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture category, while the Academy typically shortlists eight or nine.

Only on one of these past six years have all five films selected by the SAG also landed in the Academy’s pool of nominees. That was in 2015, when Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything all got a chance to shine during each of the ceremonies.

In 2017 and 2013, the SAG and the Academy agreed on four films (Hidden Figures, Manchester By the Sea, Fences, and Moonlight in 2017; Argo, Les Misérables, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook in 2013).

All in all, this is a category worth keeping an eye on, with room for surprises.

The SAG Awards nominations will be announced on 12 December, 2018 at 10am ET. Awkwafina and Laverne Cox will host the announcement.

Let the data do the talking – Here is how the SAG and Academy Awards nominations compare:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2018:

SAG Awards:

Gary Oldman

Timothée Chalamet

James Franco

Daniel Kaluuya

Denzel Washington

Oscars:

Gary Oldman

Timothée Chalamet

Daniel Day-Lewis

Daniel Kaluuya

Denzel Washington

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2018:

SAG Awards:

Frances McDormand

Judi Dench

Sally Hawkins

Margot Robbie

Saoirse Ronan

Oscars:

Frances McDormand

Meryl Streep

Sally Hawkins

Margot Robbie

Saoirse Ronan

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2017:

SAG Awards:

Denzel Washington

Casey Affleck

Andrew Garfield

Ryan Gosling

Viggo Mortensen

Oscars:

Denzel Washington

Casey Affleck

Andrew Garfield

Ryan Gosling

Viggo Mortensen​

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2017:

SAG Awards:

Emma Stone

Emmy Adams

Emily Blunt

Natalie Portman

Meryl Streep

Oscars:

Emma Stone

Natalie Portman

Meryl Streep

Isabelle Huppert

Ruth Negga​

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2016:

SAG Awards:

Leonardo DiCaprio

Bryan Cranston

Johnny Depp

Michael Fassbender

Eddie Redmayne

Oscars:

Leonardo DiCaprio

Bryan Cranston

Johnny Depp

Michael Fassbender

Eddie Redmayne​

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2016:

SAG Awards:

Brie Larson

Cate Blanchett

Helen Mirren

Saoirse Ronan

Sarah Silverman

Oscars:

Brie Larson

Cate Blanchett

Sarah Silverman

Jennifer Lawrence

Charlotte Rampling​

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2015:

SAG Awards:

Eddie Redmayne

Steve Carell

Benedict Cumberbatch

Jake Gyllenhaal

Michael Keaton

Oscars:

Eddie Redmayne

Steve Carell

Benedict Cumberbatch

Bradley Cooper

Michael Keaton

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2015:

SAG Awards:

Julianne Moore

Jennifer Aniston

Felicity Jones

Rosamund Pike

Reese Witherspoon

Oscars:

Julianne Moore

Marion Cotillard

Felicity Jones

Rosamund Pike

Reese Witherspoon

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2014:

SAG Awards:

Matthew McConaughey

Bruce Dern

Chiwetel Ejiofor

Tom Hanks

Forest Whittaker

Oscars:

Matthew McConaughey

Bruce Dern

Chiwetel Ejiofor

Leonardo DiCaprio

Christian Bale

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2014:

SAG Awards:

Cate Blanchett

Sandra Bullock

Judi Dench

Meryl Streep

Emma Thompson

Oscars:

Cate Blanchett

Sandra Bullock

Judi Dench

Meryl Streep

Amy Adams

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actor – 2013:

SAG Awards:

Daniel Day-Lewis

Bradley Cooper

John Hawkes

Hugh Jackman

Denzel Washington

Oscars:

Daniel Day-Lewis

Bradley Cooper

John Hawkes

Joaquin Phoenix

Denzel Washington

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role / Best Actress – 2013:

SAG Awards:

Jennifer Lawrence

Jessica Chastain

Marion Cotillard

Helen Mirren

Naomi Watts

Oscars:

Jennifer Lawrence

Jessica Chastain

Naomi Watts

Emmanuelle Riva

Quvenzhané Wallis