'Toy Story 3' to play with 'Grown Ups' and Cruise

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Opening two days earlier than originally planned, Knight & Day, the action-comedy starring Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz, gets a jump on the weekend box office. This move gives the film an edge over ensemble comedy Grown Ups, releasing on June 25, but will it be enough to take the top spot from Toy Story 3?

Normally, an action-packed Tom Cruise movie would dominate, but even with the star power attached, Knight & Day is unlikely to finish first. Despite positive responses to preview screenings, the thriller may have to fight off Grown Ups, starring Kevin James, Chris Rock and Adam Sandler, for second place.

Another factor at play, the hybrid of action-adventure/romantic-comedies have not performed well recently, such as Killers with Katherine Heigl and Ashton Kutcher and The Bounty Hunter with Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler. This weekend could test Tom Cruise's box office draw.

Since it earned more than $110 million last weekend, family-friendly Toy Story 3 should stay at No. 1 at the US box office, even with the typical drop of 30-40 percent. It should also remain big worldwide, opening in more countries.

Another indication that Toy Story 3 will win the weekend is the internet buzz. According to Boxoffice.com's tracking service WebWatch, the animated movie is the subject of around 28 percent of opinions voiced on the web - the largest share among all films in release. It is also the second best-selling advance ticket are - just behind Twilight's Eclipse.

RC