Asia’s biggest military air show fills the skies above Indian city – buts fails to deliver much-needed deals

Aero India brought plenty of excitement as US F-35s were displayed in the country for the first time, but ultimately what does New Delhi have to show for it? Arpan Rai reports from Bengaluru

Indian Air Force planes fly in formation during the inauguration of the Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru, India (Getty Images)

The roads leading to the Yelahanka air force station, one of India’s finest air bases in the southern city of Bengaluru (formerly Bangalore), are marked with giant hoardings of prime minister Narendra Modi and the country’s indigenous light combat aircraft Tejas.

Asia’s biggest air show, spanning five days, began with much fanfare last week and featured the imposing presence of India’s Western allies such as the US and France, who displayed their most advanced fighter jets, including the F-35, F-16, Super Hornets, B-1B bombers, and Rafales.

Aero India, which had the tagline “The runway to a billion opportunities”, saw participation also from the UK, Israel, and Brazil, who displayed a range of cutting-edge military platforms and weapons systems.

The stage seemed set for India to sign some seriously big arms deals, with one of the world’s biggest defence importers welcoming potential suppliers at a time when it is facing significant security pressure at its borders, particularly from China. Yet in the end the air show came and went without any significant agreements being inked.

Russia, arguably India’s most important ally in terms of defence imports over many decades, had a comparatively muted presence. It sent its state-owned weapons exporter Rosoboronexport for a stall displaying military hardware like the fifth-generation Su-57E multi-role fighter and the Su-35, Su-30, and MiG-35D fighter aircraft. However, none of these hit the skies.

A US Air Force’s (USAF) fifth-generation supersonic multirole F-35 fighter jet flies past during a flying display on the second day of the 14th edition of Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru (AFP via Getty Images)

Spectators watch as a US Air Force’s (USAF) fifth-generation supersonic multirole F-35 fighter jet flies past during a flying display on the second day of the 14th edition of Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru (AFP via Getty Images)

Given India’s reputation as a fertile market, its air show always attracts the world’s most prominent defence producers and private companies, Sushant Singh, senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR) in New Delhi, tells The Independent.

But while this year’s fly-bys filled the Bengaluru skies for days on end, what is displayed at the aviation show has very little real-world impact on India’s ability to deal with adversaries such as China and Pakistan, Singh adds.

The Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team (SKAT) follows an Indian Air Force C-17-Globemaster as they perform during the inauguration of the Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru (Getty Images)

“We have not seen major deals emanating out of Aero India over the last many years. Nothing major has been signed by India and any of its partners because of Aero India, even in this edition. The biggest aircraft deal India has signed was with France on Rafale fighter jets and that was signed based on an open tender that was issued in 2004-2005 by the UPA regime [a former Congress-led government],” he explains.

The United Progressive Alliance is a coalition administration headed by Congress and is now Mr Modi’s primary opposition. “Independent India has never bought a single fighter aircraft from the US in its 75 years,” Sushant Singh says.

The show also does not have a direct effect on displaying India’s standalone military power, as the exhibition is mostly to bring buyers and sellers together, he says.

An Indian Air Force Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) performs during the inauguration of the Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru, India (Getty Images)

Even for a situation in which tempers rise between China and India, with increasing border skirmishes and accusations of land grabbing since 2020, the Modi administration will have to do with what it already has in its inventory, the CPR fellow explains.

These largely include the Soviet-era fighter jet fleet of Sukhoi Su-30, MiG-21 and MiG-29, along with the French Dassault Rafale which was inducted after much furore over India’s ageing fleet.

Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter planes perform during the inauguration of the Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru (Getty Images)

But this falls in line with what India has constructed as its rules of diplomacy – it does not want other nations to interfere in its affairs.

“We see F-35 coming to Bangalore but what really happens? It is not like the US will give F-35 to India tomorrow if and when China is threatening India’s territorial integrity. India will have to fight with what is in its existing arsenal in its inventory. That is a call India has taken historically – this is how we want this to pan out,” Sushant Singh explains.

India’s prime minister Narendra Modi speaks during the inauguration of the 14th edition of ‘Aero India 2023’ at the Yelahanka air force station in Bengaluru (AFP via Getty Images)

The standout highlight of the five-day aviation marathon remains the grand US participation, which was not necessarily the largest but certainly the most attention-grabbing with its stealth aircraft and bombers, says independent defence analyst Angad Singh.

India was not considering acquiring the F-35 “as of now”, an Indian Air Force source told Reuters, but they said that the display of two F-35s at Aero India for the first time was a sign of New Delhi’s rising strategic ties to Washington.

“The US, by its own laws, is not allowed to sell stealth aircraft because of various export controls, along with the strategic bombers to anyone. But the presence of those aircraft is not a sales pitch. It is only a signal of commitment and the confidence in the bilateral relationship between the US and India,” explains Angad Singh.

He says that despite its apparent scale and all the hype it received, the Indian aviation show was not in the same league as other foreign defence events.

“Even Singapore and Dubai, Malaysia, Abu Dhabi, Paris – all the defence shows see more business and contracts being signed. So on that yardstick, the [Aero India] show was pretty dim,” he says.

India should strive to make its air shows be about business first, diplomacy second and military last, Angad Singh says, adding that this year’s edition felt like more of a PR exercise.

The Surya Kiran Aerobatic Team (SKAT) perform during the inauguration of the Aero India 2023 at the Yelahanka Air Force Station in Bengaluru (Getty Images)

The lack of deals for fighter jets comes at a critical juncture for India, whose air force is down to its lowest ever number of fighter squadrons of a total of 30, despite being authorised to maintain 42.

In December, air chief marshal VR Chaudhari said the Indian Air Force desperately needs five to six squadrons of 4.5 generation aircraft to meet the required level of combat readiness. He noted that the nation is flanked by two nuclear-armed powers – China and Pakistan.

“There are certain critical deficiencies like shortage of fighter squadrons and force multipliers which must be addressed on priority to retain our combat edge,” the top official said, pointing out that India’s geopolitical neighbourhood remains “volatile and uncertain”.

Experts say that unless the air show starts to translate into boosting the capacities that India urgently needs, it will have a very limited impact on the country’s military capabilities.