Philippines preparing for ‘worst case scenario’ in South China Sea

National Security Council emphasises need to exhaust ‘all diplomatic measures’ to resolve escalating tensions

The Philippines said its navy was preparing for the “worst-case scenario” in the South China Sea to counter China amid growing military tensions in the disputed waters.

A top official tasked with strengthening maritime security in the West Philippines Sea said troops on the east coast were “studying all options”. However, the government of Ferdinand Marcos Jr has been advised to keep the focus on diplomacy to resolve the conflict.

“We are ready for what they are going to do. The troops stationed at Sierra Madre are prepared for the worst-case scenario,” Vice-Admiral Alberto Carlos said. “We are studying all options. It’s unacceptable if we are going to stop the resupply mission.”

The BRP Sierra Madre is a grounded ship on the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea that has been the site of a series of escalating confrontations. Philippines says it had a right to run resupply missions to troops on the grounded World Two-era vessel.

The Philippines deliberately grounded the ship on the shoal in 1999 to assert its sovereignty claim on the atoll. China claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, a claim that cuts into the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. The grounded Philippines transport ship at the shoal is about 190km (118 miles) off the Philippine island of Palawan.

The remarks by Mr Carlos came as president Marcos Jr’s National Security Council (NSC) emphasised the need to exhaust all diplomatic measures to resolve the escalating tensions with China.

Mr Marcos Jr last week said the Philippines would implement unspecified measures against "illegal, coercive, aggressive, and dangerous attacks" by the Chinese coast guard in the South China Sea.

"The proportionate, deliberate and reasonable response the president was talking about covered not only the aspect of strengthening military and defence capabilities with other allies ... but it also talks about exhausting diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue," NSC spokesperson Jonathan Malaya said on state TV, describing the measures as multi-dimensional.

Mr Marcos Jr has ordered his government to strengthen the country’s coordination on maritime security to confront "a range of serious challenges" to territorial integrity and peace, according to a copy of the directive released on Sunday.

Tensions have ratcheted up between the Philippines and China after their armies were involved in a series of run-ins in the past year with the latest incidents of clashes resulting in injuries to coast guards.

Analysts have raised an alarm over the military posturing, urging for diplomatic negotiations to prevent the situation from escalating into an open conflict.

This frame grab from video footage taken and released on 25 March 2024 by the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (PCG/BFAR) shows a Chinese helicopter hovering as Philippine scientists inspect a cay near the Philippine-held Thitu Island, in the Spratly Islands, in the disputed South China Sea (Philippine Coast Guard/AFP via G)

The latest flare-up happened on 23 March when three Filipino Navy sailors were injured after Chinese coast guard personnel used a water cannon.

It was to allegedly disrupt a Philippine resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal for soldiers guarding the BRP Sierra Madre. China has been accused of blocking resupply missions to those troops amid deepening military ties between the US and the Philippines.

This frame grab from handout aerial video footage taken and released on 23 March 2024 by Philippines Armed Forces shows China Coast Guard ships (L and R) deploying water cannon against the Philippine military-chartered civilian boat Unaizah (ARMED FORCES OF THE PHILIPPINES/)

Vice Admiral Carlos told the South China Morning Post it will be “unacceptable” to halt the resupply mission to Sierra Madre.

On Tuesday, Eduardo M Año, the national security adviser of the Philippines, and his US counterpart Jake Sullivan held a phone call to discuss "coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions" by Beijing.

Mr Ano "expressed his appreciation for the United States’ continued assurances and reaffirmation of its ironclad commitment" to their alliance, according to a statement.