UK could experience ‘civil unrest’ due to food shortages triggered by climate disasters

Experts say extreme weather events are the most probable cause of food shortages and subsequent distribution issues

The UK’s top food security experts believe the country could face “civil unrest” in the coming decades due to climate-triggered food shortages, according to a new survey.

Nearly 80 per cent of the experts surveyed expressed their belief that civil unrest is either possible (45 per cent), more likely than not (24 per cent), or very likely (10 per cent) over the next 50 years due to food shortages.

Shortages of popular carbohydrates such as wheat, bread, pasta, and cereal were identified as the most likely potential triggers for social unrest.

The research, published in the journal Sustainability, surveyed 58 of the UK’s top food experts from academia, policy, charities, and businesses.

Extreme weather events that have increased due to rising average global temperatures, including storm surges, flooding, snow, and drought, were identified as the most probable cause of food shortages and subsequent distribution issues.

Experts have long raised concerns over the vulnerability of the UK’s food supply, with around half the food consumed in Britain being imported, including 80 per cent of fresh fruit, 50 per cent of vegetables, and 20 per cent of beef and poultry.

A quarter of the food imports are from the Mediterranean alone, which has been suffering from droughts, heatwaves and wildfires at record levels in recent years.

The researchers from Anglia Ruskin University and the University of York conducted an in-depth analysis of the current state of the UK's food system, noting that the heavy reliance on imports, coupled with a food system optimised primarily for efficiency rather than resilience, poses a significant threat to the nation's food security.

We are witnessing an increasing number of extreme weather events, many of which are driven by climate change. It is entirely possible that in the coming decades, extreme weather events will cause major crop yield failures across multiple breadbaskets.

Professor Sarah Bridle, chair of food, climate, and society at the University of York

The study also highlighted various factors contributing to this vulnerability apart from the worsening climate crisis, including ecological collapse, trade restrictions, financial crises, rogue AI, new pandemics, and animal or plant pathogens.

It is the combination of these factors that experts fear might lead to catastrophic failures in the food system, potentially resulting in insufficient food to feed the UK population.

"Government agencies and businesses must explore options to increase the resilience of the food system,” professor Aled Jones, the director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University and lead author of the study, said.

“This includes initiatives such as ecosystem restoration, innovative storage solutions, sustainable farming practices, comprehensive approaches to consumer engagement, as well as addressing food poverty and mitigating the adverse effects of climate change."

Professor Sarah Bridle, chair of food, climate and society at the University of York, says there is a need for a fundamental shift in the way we approach our food system.

"Covid-19, Brexit, and the ongoing cost of living crisis have already exposed the UK to certain vulnerabilities. The food system faces significant challenges.”

“We are witnessing an increasing number of extreme weather events, many of which are driven by climate change. It is entirely possible that in the coming decades, extreme weather events will cause major crop yield failures across multiple breadbaskets.”

“We need a food system designed not just for optimal efficiency, but also for resilience."

The year 2023 is on track to be the hottest on record for the world and this summer in the northern hemisphere was found to be the hottest ever, according to data from Nasa, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth. It was also likely the hottest month in 120,000 years.

Nasa map shows global temperature anomalies for meteorological summer (June, July, and August) 2023 (Nasa)

Scientific studies say these weather extremes will continue to worsen as long as greenhouse gas emissions keep rising and, therefore, controlling them is the only way to ensure consumers are protected from future shocks.

In a new report called Climate Impacts on UK Food Imports, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said the UK cannot simply grow its way out of the food crisis triggered by climate extremes because to do so would create extra energy demand at a time when growers still rely on fossil fuels.