North Sea cod will be wiped out unless fishing stops, say scientists

The North Sea cod fishery, mainstay of Scotland's fishing industry and provider of thousands of jobs, should be shut down to prevent the cod stock collapsing, scientists have told the Government. Last night there was near-panic in the Scottish fishing industry. If the recommendation is adopted, it would devastate fishing communities on its north-east coast.

The call comes from the scientists of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, a Copenhagen-based body that annually provides independent advice to European Union fisheries ministers, to decide national catch quotas.

The scientists say the cod stock is so depleted – the catch is down to 41,000 tons from 341,000 tons in 1972 – that it is in danger of collapse, because not enough mature fish are left to breed to maintain stocks. Recovery could take years. Their advice, to be discussed by EU fisheries ministers in Brussels by Christmas, was to be published on Friday, but implications for Scottish fishermen are so dire it leaked yesterday.

Angry fishermen's leaders appealed to the Government, saying halting cod-fishing – and perhaps fishing for haddock and whiting, too – could cost 9,000 jobs and perhaps as many as 20,000. Alex Smith, the president of the Scottish Fishermen's Federation, said: "I don't know if they realise what this means to the Scottish fishing industry. It will mean the closure of our fisheries at sea and on shore. It will cost thousands of jobs." He said the "absurd" measures were the greatest threat to the industry he had known, and he talked of "political interference".

Elliot Morley, the Fisheries minister, who will meet fishermen's leaders today, said: "We will look very carefully at the interpretation of this advice, and we have to look at what options are open to us to keep the fishery open, which would be my first choice. But we cannot, and will not, ignore scientific advice."