T-shirts in October? Get used to it – tropical autumn is the new normal

Beach days, ice cream vans, and weather for shorts – it was the hottest September since records began. With another balmy weekend in store, Nick Harding looks at why you are going to have to rethink what autumn means from now on

Sunbathers bask in Potters Field Park near London Bridge during the hottest September on record (PA)

It’s the first full weekend of October, almost halfway through meteorological autumn, and the Christmas Shop has already opened at John Lewis, with festive selection boxes on the shelves at the Co-op. So, that can only mean one thing: shorts, T-shirts, barbecues, and packed beaches.

Chances are you still haven’t cleared away the sunscreen from your summer holidays yet, which is just as well because, according to meteorologist Alex Burkill, it’s going to be a weekend of high temperatures, with Sunday hovering around 25C, possibly reaching up to 27C.

In anticipation of out-of-season swimmers venturing into unguarded waters, the RNLI has issued a warning advising anyone who gets into trouble to float, tilt their head back with their ears submerged, try to relax, and breathe normally.

Meanwhile, the seaside resorts of Bournemouth, Sandbanks, and Poole are bracing for crowds of autumnal sunseekers as parts of the UK are expected to be hotter than Ibiza..

A child enjoys the autumn sun at a beach in Deal, Kent (PA)

Amanda Park, tourism team manager at Visit Dorset, explains: “The warmer September and October have encouraged more people to visit popular locations around Dorset, and some areas have been busier than usual over the last few weeks.

“Autumn is becoming a very popular time of year, and there is a definite trend towards late bookings, with visitors waiting right up to the weekend and checking weather forecasts before booking at the last minute.”

In North Devon, Airbnb searches for accommodation this week were up 162 per cent from last year, and author Helen Garlick, who runs writing retreats in the area, tells us: “The shoulder season is much better than expected, with loads of surfers and tourists. When the sun’s out and the surf is up, bookings soar, and we’re getting sun much later in the season.”

Which begs the question, is autumn even a thing anymore?

Statistics show that summer is increasingly stealing autumn’s thunder. Once the season of warming soups and winter preparations, autumn is shape-shifting into a fleeting sojourn between broiling summers and mild winters. Last month was not only the hottest September on record, but temperatures were higher by a margin described by scientists not normally prone to hyperbole as ‘‘whopping’’.

Autumn can produce weather like this over St Brelade’s Bay in Jersey (Getty/iStock)

Globally, last October was the fourth warmest since records began 113 years ago. This year is shaping up to be the warmest year ever, following the planet’s hottest recorded summer. Climate change and an El Nino event in the east equatorial Pacific are the culprits.

But a more sustained pattern of autumnal contraction is evident in the Northern hemisphere. Over the past seven decades, high summer temperatures have been arriving earlier and lasting longer, meaning a traditional feeling of autumnal weather is now squished into a few weeks in late November and December.

A Met Office report last year confirmed that this summer bleed far into October is now something we should get accustomed to, with Daniel Cotterill, the lead scientist behind the study, saying: “Weather patterns such as those dominated by large low-pressure systems will tend to occur slightly less in autumn in the future.”

This will have an effect on everything from gardens to ice cream sales and how we dress. Today, the couple planning an autumn wedding will need to consider a marquee for a balmy garden party as much as they do roaring open fires and faux fur throws. Indeed, it is becoming hard to plan for anything at all.

Daniel Powell, horticulturist and proprietor of Instant Scenery in Worcestershire, says: “Fifteen years ago, we stopped mowing lawns in late October or early November. Now we can be mowing grass in December. Some clients ask for their lawns to be mowed so they look good for Christmas Day.

“Normally we would prune fruit trees between November and February, but we can’t do that because it’s not cold enough, so it gets later each year. A lot of planting is changing to meet the environmental changes.”

Mr Powell reports that roses are flowering later, and this week daffodils were spotted poking through one client’s border, ‘‘which is ridiculous’’.

The weather is also perfect for pests because hard winters kill them off. They survive in warmer temperatures to return earlier the following year with vengeance. Wildlife can’t escape either, as Simon Cowell, founder and CEO of Wildlife Aid Foundation in Surrey, explains.

“We had a badger last week that was only 3.5kgs. It should have been over 8kg by this time of year. I think they’re all struggling to find food and water because the ground is still so hard. The warmer weather will also affect the hibernation patterns of hedgehogs.

“We only seem to have two seasons – summer and winter, which is affecting breeding patterns too. We had a duckling two years ago on Christmas Eve. Who knows whether that was early or late?”

Parts of England will be hotter than Cyprus and the Costa del Sol this weekend (PA)

Retail patterns are also changing. Summer wardrobes last well into October, and who needs a winter coat when it’s a balmy 20C?

“People are in their summer clothes for longer. Shoppers used to buy next-season clothes in September; now it’s more like October and November, and coats take a back seat,” says personal stylist Lisa Talbot.

And as 18C has been identified as the sweet spot, beyond which sales of ice cream and lollies start to rocket, the nation’s ice cream vans will be out in force this weekend too. But there’s good news for autumn lovers: foliage displays are unlikely to be affected, as leaves change colour in relation to the amount of daylight they are exposed to, rather than the temperature. Although the days may be warmer, they will not be longer.

But we’re all going to have to get used to this new tropical autumn feeling. A key finding from the Met Office study was that the pattern is likely to be permanent. From the mid-2020s, we can expect warmer drier autumns following hotter and drier summers, giving rise to increasing drought conditions. And that means some autumn traditions will change as the season shrinks. Within a few years, expect to see homeowners giving ice pops instead of Haribos to young trick-or-treaters sweltering inside nylon costumes. And as for Guy Fawkes night, when you think of the tricky combination of parched scrublands and bonfires, well, laser shows may be the way to go.