How can Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 world championship?

Piastri was fuming after a McLaren strategy error cost him the race win in Qatar on Sunday night

Oscar Piastri missed the opportunity to close the gap even further to teammate Lando Norris in the race for the F1 world championship after a McLaren strategy blunder in Qatar.

Pole-sitter Piastri looked comfortable in the lead in Lusail before an early crash triggered a safety car, with all but three cars diving into the pits on lap seven. Surprisingly, McLaren left out both Piastri and second-placed Norris.

Losing the chance to make a “free” pit-stop, Piastri was then playing catch-up and although he closed in on eventual race winner Max Verstappen at the end, he could not catch the Red Bull driver and had to settle for second. On team radio immediately afterwards, the Australian said he was “speechless.”

Oscar Piastri now trails Lando Norris by 16 points with one race left (Getty Images)

While Piastri did make up points on Norris - who finished fourth - it means the Australian drops to third in the championship standings, and falls four points behind Verstappen. Just eight races ago, Piastri had a 104-point advantage over the Dutchman.

However, trailing Norris by 16 points, Piastri still has a fighting chance of claiming his first title in Abu Dhabi next Sunday.

But when can Piastri claim the 2025 F1 world championship?

It now goes down to Abu Dhabi.

TOP-3 - F1 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP

1. Lando Norris (McLaren) – 408 points

2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – 396 points

3. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – 392 points

Norris has a 12-point lead over Verstappen, who is now in second place. Piastri is a further four points back, 16 off his teammate.

It is a normal race weekend in Abu Dhabi. Therefore, Norris will win the world championship if he finishes on the podium at the Yas Marina Circuit. A minimum third place (15 points) in Abu Dhabi would give Norris an unassailable 27-point lead.

Piastri has a difficult task now. Put simply: he needs to score 17 more points than Norris and five more points than Verstappen to guarantee the title. At a minimum, he must finish in second place or higher to have a chance.

What could this look like in reality? If Piastri wins the grand prix, Norris would have to finish in sixth place or lower and Verstappen in second place or lower.

If Piastri finishes second, he’d need Norris to finish ninth or lower and Verstappen to finish fourth or lower. If Piastri finishes third or lower, he will not win the championship.

As for Verstappen’s chances, fourth place (12 points) for Norris would give the Brit a 24-point lead and, thus, if Verstappen then won the race, the Dutchman would take the title by one point.

Alternatively, Verstappen simply needs to score 13 more points than Norris.

Twelve more points would put them level but, unless Verstappen won (in which case he’d win the title anyway if Norris finished off the podium) they would both be tied on countback on seven wins each. It then goes to second-place finishes, where Norris has the advantage with eight compared to Verstappen’s five. Piastri only has four second-place finishes.

If they’re all level on points, it goes to countback. As it stands, all three drivers have won seven races, but Norris has eight second-place finishes, compared to five for Verstappen and four for Piastri.

Norris leads Verstappen by 12 points and Piastri by 16 points (Getty)