Inside Politics: The 'Cummings Effect'

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Sun-worshiping Brits who have ditched their holidays abroad this summer in favour of ‘staycations’ will receive a treat this weekend as large swathes of the UK experience a heatwave. Temperatures in parts of the south-east and London will surge well above the mediocre 30 degrees celsius in store for places like Benidorm, Ibiza and Tenerife. The Met Office has issued an amber warning, urging people to be careful, wear sun cream, and drink plenty of water. But with coronavirus cases appearing to climb, scientists and No 10 advisers will undoubtedly be nervous of images of large gatherings on beaches and individuals flouting the rules – especially in areas with increased restrictions – over the scorching weekend.

Inside the bubble

Our policy correspondent Jon Stone on what to look out for today:

The government's test and trade system is still not fit for purpose – that's the message from Independent Sage today. The group was set up to shadow the government's official Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, amid concerns about political interference. They're expected to call for a contract with Serco to be scrapped and replaced with localised systems to get better results. We'll hear more details at a press conference kicking off at 13.30.

Daily Briefing

QUARANTINED: Belgium, Andorra and the Bahamas have been removed from the government’s safe flight list two weeks after ministers suddenly reimposed quarantine measures on travellers returning from Spain to the UK. In Belgium, almost 10,000 people have died from the virus so far – a per-capita death rate higher than any other major country. While the inclusion of Andorra and the Bahamas is unlikely to affect a significant number of travellers during the summer, the Foreign Office says that in a normal year around 1.8 million Brits travel to Belgium. Transport secretary Grant Shapps, who is still self-isolating after abruptly ending his holiday in Spain, said those arriving in the country from 0400 on Saturday from these destinations will need to self-isolate for a two-week period. According to reports, ministers have also placed France on a list of countries that are being “closely monitored” by officials after the second-most popular destination for UK tourists experienced its highest number of daily coronavirus infections in over two months, with close to 1,700 new cases within 24 hours.

CUMMINGS EFFECT: Boris Johnson’s decision to stand by his senior aide after he travelled to Durham during the height of the lockdown with Covid-19 symptoms and then on to Barnard Castle to test his eyesight, drastically undermined public trust in the government’s handling of the pandemic, according to new research published today. Quelle surprise. Publishing their findings in the Lancet medical journal, researchers at UCL identified a “Dominic Cummings effect” showing a clear decrease in public confidence in the government from mid-May when the explosive story came out. They analysed data from over 220,000 survey results from more than 40,000 people between 24 April and 11 June. The findings come as No 10 was also urged to provide evidence the adviser did not make a second 260-mile trip to Durham during the lockdown – after two witnesses complained over the police investigation into the allegations. Mr Cummings has repeatedly denied a second alleged trip to the city on 19 April and claimed he has the phone data to prove he was in London that day. Release the records, the witnesses say.

PRITI FURIOUS: Ministers are accused today of “playing politics with public health” as the government resumes deportations for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic outbreak in the UK. The Independent has been told up to 20 asylum seekers are scheduled to be deported to France and Germany on Wednesday under regulations that require asylum seekers to claim refuge in the first safe country they arrive in. Labour’s Diane Abbott raised concerns about the asylum seekers’ vulnerability to contracting Covid-19, claiming: “The Home Office is potentially sending people to their death, but does not seem to care”. According to separate reports, Priti Patel is also said to be “furious” at the number of migrants crossing the Channel in small boats. The Daily Mail claimed the home secretary has backed sending Royal Navy patrols to turn back the boats after 235 migrants crossed the waters on Thursday – setting a new record high for crossings in a single day.

NO SAFETY NET: Legacy cuts to the welfare state implemented during the coalition years are having rippling effects during the pandemic. The number of families affected by the benefit cap introduced in 2013, which limits how much any one household can receive in total benefits, increased dramatically during the initial months of the coronavirus outbreak. As of May, 154,000 households had their social security payments capped – a 93 per cent increase from the previous quarter. Of those affected, 52,000 are single parents with at least one child under five-years-old. The rise represents the greatest single increase in the number of capped households since the policy was introduced. Campaigners are now renewing their efforts to demand government suspends the policy which has been linked to rent arrears and homelessness. “The benefit cap has always been nonsensical because it’s an arbitrary limit that’s applied irrespective of needs,” says Child Poverty Action Group. “In a pandemic it is egregious.”

NUMBERS DON’T LIE: The United States has the world’s worst outbreak of coronavirus, the country’s top virus expert Dr Anthony Fauci has said. Asked on CNN whether the American outbreak was worse than any other, the member of the White House coronavirus task force replied, candidly: “Yeah it is quantitatively if you look at it, it is. I mean the numbers don’t lie. Every country has suffered. We, the United States, has suffered… as much or worse than anyone. I mean when you look at the number of infections and the number of deaths, it really is quite concerning.” Indeed. According the John Hopkins University’s coronavirus resource centre there have been over 4.8 million cases of Covid-19 in the country and over 160,000 deaths as a result of the virus. Unsurprisingly, Dr Fauci’s remarks are at odds with the US president, who bizarrely claimed earlier this week the nation is “lower than the world” in terms of coronavirus cases.

On the record

“I wish I hadn't been sat next to a developer at an event and I regret sharing text messages with him afterwards – but I don't regret the decision, because I think it was right to get housing built on a brownfield site on a part of London that desperately needs it”.

... housing secretary Robert Jenrick responds to BBC on whether he can be trusted to deliver planning reforms after his involvement with the Westferry property project and Conservative donor Richard Desmond

From the Twitterati

"I found this interesting, insightful, if not entirely convincing. Can BBC Bitesize now produce a similar video arguing white privilege is an unhelpful confection? Then I can weigh up both and come to a more considered, better informed view."

... says the BBC's veteran interviewer Andrew Neil in response to a BBC Bitesize video asking "What is white privilege".

"So for every science programme Andrew would you like the BBC to also put on a flat-earther?"

... responds the former Liberal Democrat London mayoral contender Siobhan Benita

Essential reading

Rita Issa, The Independent: Now is the time for action – not just kind words – to help a devastated Beirut

Sadiq Khan, The Independent: Planning rules aren’t just ‘red tape’ – they’re essential for building affordable homes people actually want to live

Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett, The Guardian: We all want a holiday from coronavirus – even if that’s a fantasy

Tom Rowley, The Economist: Queer, there and everywhere – How the internet is changing the experience of coming out