I first visited Afghanistan two decades ago – there were signs then that events could turn out like this

Beneath the relatively placid surface dangerous undercurrents were already in motion, writes Borzou Daragahi

An Afghan woman points to the location of an airstrike that struck her home in the western city of Herat in 2002 (Borzou Daragahi)

I first visited Afghanistan more than 19 years  ago, crossing the Iran-Afghan border on foot and taking a taxi to the western city of Herat. It was just a few months after the toppling of the Taliban regime at the hands of Nato and the constellation of militias known as the Northern Alliance.

The city had little electricity, running water, and little by way of a functioning economy. The roads were pockmarked, and the buildings were crumbling. But the markets were full of sparkling fruits, and the streets bustled with energy. There was a spirit of hope in the air. It was springtime, and in the afternoons children – including girls – dressed in school uniforms filled the dilapidated roadways. Maybe, just maybe after what had been 25 years of war and instability, Afghanistan had a chance.

But even then there were clear signs that Afghanistan’s 20-year experiment in western-backed pluralism was doomed. Just barely beneath the relatively placid surface, dangerous undercurrents were already in motion.