Could Marine Le Pen actually defeat Emmanuel Macron?

One opinion poll last week put the former right-wing fringe candidate just five points behind, writes John Rentoul

Macron’s popularity has been falling since the middle of last month – and Marine Le Pen’s has been rising (AFP via Getty)

Until last week, the British media seemed uninterested in the French presidential election. The first round is next Sunday, with the second round two weeks later. Emmanuel Macron had for a long time seemed headed for a second five-year term, as his often unpredictable centrism kept his mainstream opponents in disarray, and he retained a comfortable lead over Marine Le Pen, his likely opponent in the run-off.

There have been brief flurries of interest in other candidates over the past six months. Eric Zemmour tried to move in on Le Pen from the anti-immigration right, attempting to take advantage of her move to the centre, but has fallen back. Then Valerie Pecresse surged as the candidate of the united centre-right, before unsurging again. Finally, Jean-Luc Melenchon of the Corbyn-like left has made a late run.

However, the early phase of the war in Ukraine gave Macron a boost. He was active on the world stage as the only western leader who was engaged with Vladimir Putin. It seemed that the contest was all over bar the formalities. It looked as if we were heading for a repeat of 2017, at least in the second round of voting, when Macron trounced Le Pen by 66 per cent to 34 per cent.