Brexit has reduced Europe to a mere spectator in the battle to curb Iran’s expanding nuclear programme

Editorial: Had the UK never left the EU, the bloc might still possess the unity and leverage to lead the quest for a diplomatic solution

In the immediate aftermath of​ Brexit, Britain’s place in the world is already feeling a little diminished. As The Independent reports this weekend, the greatest single threat to peace across the globe right now is Iran’s renewed determination to acquire a nuclear arsenal. With the Trump-Netanyahu peace proposal met with near-universal disdain, there is more chance of miscalculation and conflict in the region than negotiation and lasting peace.

At a moment when the major European powers concerned could and should be putting on a united front, reports suggest that there is squabbling. There often is, of course, but the habit of working together through the European Union usually helps the French, the Germans and the British to reach some common purpose. With the United States more determined to go its own way in lockstep with Israel, the dangers are clear.

We knew after the Trump-ordered assassination of Qassem Soleimani that any hope of keeping the 2015 Iran nuclear deal had disappeared. The decision by the Europeans to put the agreement into a dispute procedure did not so much kill it off as draw attention to the corpse. A moment for sober realism about Iran has arrived.

Plainly there will be no new deal, despite Boris Johnson’s optimistic rhetoric about reviving it. Donald Trump’s aggression has not provoked any meaningful military response from the Iranians. That does not mean they are out of options. Far from it. Now outside any multilateral inspection regime, there is little to prevent the ayatollahs from pressing on with the task of creating weapons of mass destruction. While they may be exaggerating, Iranians seem close to amassing sufficient reactor-grade uranium to convert into a single nuclear warhead, and quickly.

If the US and its allies want to prevent the Iranians from threatening their neighbours, then there are few options. The Israelis could bomb Iran’s nuclear sites and disrupt production. The problem with that, apart from any consideration for the deaths that would inevitably result, is that it would demand retaliation. The more fundamental objection is that it will merely make the Iranians even more intent on ensuring their own security with a substantial deterrent – just like the one Israel possesses as an open secret.

Perhaps, had Brexit never happened, Europe might still possess the unity and the leverage to lead the quest for a diplomatic solution. At any rate, the EU would have that much more of a chance of influencing events, rather than being a mere spectator while the Iranians and Americans engage in a contest to see who can be more reckless.