How police are using social media to predict gang crime before it happens

Analysis: The change of strategy comes after years of attempts to make social media companies remove material, writes Lizzie Dearden

Instagram is one of the platforms used to find ‘chatter’ on upcoming violence (iStock)

Social media has a substantial role in facilitating gang activity by intensifying, amplifying, and moving it to a space that is perceived by gang members to be impenetrable by the authorities,” warns the government’s Serious Violence Strategy.

“Threats of violence, recruitment and drug dealing are glamorised and promoted in this seemingly secluded space, and gangs often post videos online that seek to incite violence or glamorise criminality to influence young people. The instant nature of social media also means that plans develop rapidly and disputes can escalate very quickly.”

The April 2018 document accurately diagnosed the impact of social media on rising violent crime across Britain, but users who know where to look will have seen little change since it was published.

With the exception of a crackdown on drill music videos – which was portrayed by critics as racist and narrow-minded – the content described still remains online.

Across Snapchat and Instagram, young gang members are still largely free to send out images showing profits from drug dealing, threats and even footage of themselves attacking rivals.

The British government and police have enjoyed limited returns from years of pushing social media giants to take down the material more proactively – so now they are changing tack.

Instead of just seeking to remove the posts, a new unit of the Metropolitan Police is using the “open-source intelligence” against gang members.

Senior officers say that since Project Alpha was set up in June, they have intercepted “chatter” including death threats and conspiracies to smuggle drugs into prison.

The intelligence they gathered accurately predicted future targets in a string of robberies targeting JD Sports shops across the country last month, allowing increased security to be put in place and stop the trend.

Temporary Detective Chief Superintendent Mike West, who leads the project, said the public would be shocked by the scale of violent and illegal material openly posted on social media.

“What Alpha basically does is harness what’s going on normally online,” he said. “It’s about having people who are able to pick up the subtleties and context.”

The unit grew out of operations specifically targeting drill music that started in 2018, but were met with accusations of discrimination and censorship from artists and fans.

Scotland Yard will be hoping that Project Alpha, which covers all types of threat on any platform, will enjoy a more favourable response.

Officers are already expanding their work for five other British police forces, and the ultimate aim is to replicate their capability across the country.

Time will tell whether the model will be more effective, or less controversial, than other attempts at predictive policing.