The lessons to be taken from the Birmingham Erdington by-election

By-elections, after all, no matter how minor they might appear, represent what the politicians like to call ‘real votes in real ballot boxes’, writes Sean O'Grady

Sir Keir Starmer in Birmingham to congratulate newly elected Labour MP Paulette Hamilton (PA)

All by-elections carry some interest, even those held in safe seats, with a low turnout, in the middle of a war. So it is with Birmingham Erdington, the constituency that fell vacant after the death of the incumbent Labour MP, Jack Dromey.

The seat was held fairly comfortably by Paulette Hamilton, a local politician, as it was expected to be, but it was nonetheless encouraging news for Labour, and rather more mixed for the other parties. By-elections, after all, no matter how minor they might appear, represent what the politicians like to call “real votes in real ballot boxes”, and they obviously add to the information gleaned from opinion polls and other surveys of public sentiment about the parties and the government.

Hamilton managed to secure a swing to Labour, compared with the 2019 election, of about 4.5 per cent. That’s respectable enough, given that the turnout, on a wet Thursday afternoon in Brum in a secure seat, was so paltry – because low turnout tends to favour the Conservatives, traditionally. On the other hand, given the dramatic shift in the national polls towards Labour over the past year – following its calamitous performance in the 2019 general election – it’s arguably a little more disappointing.