Would a no-deal Brexit lead to Scottish independence?

Like the Irish Question before it, the Scottish Question is becoming intractable, and so much so that a popular vote would end up settling nothing and making matters worse, writes Sean O’Grady

The national issue will likely be at the forefront of next May’s elections (Getty)

While there is nothing inexorable or inevitable about politics, the growing probability of a “no-deal”, “clean”, “WTO terms” Brexit would seem to be pushing Scottish opinion closer to the idea of Scotland leaving the union. The support for remaining in the UK in the first independence referendum in 2014 was 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Now that position is close to being reversed. All the signs are that the Scottish National Party (SNP) will win its seventh victory in a row (counting all contests) at the elections for the Edinburgh parliament next May, with an overall majority of seats and votes. The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has made it clear that the national issue will be placed at the forefront of the SNP campaign, and she has promised to put a referendum bill before the Scottish parliament.

As when the SNP won a mandate to seek a referendum in the Scottish election of 2011, they would possess a strong moral case, which was conceded by the then prime minister, David Cameron. Besides, it is not for the Tories or the SNP to declare the 2014 referendum “once in a lifetime” – that is a mere political slogan. The substance of Scottish sovereignty lies with the people rather than any assembly or parliament, because Scotland remains a nation within the UK, and because the 2016 referendum shows how popular will now overrides the traditional sovereignty of parliament.

The advent of hard Brexit would arguably change everything, as would a landslide SNP victory next May. Between 2011 and 2014, Cameron set the constitutional precedent for granting a vote, for better or worse. The SNP could also pass a bill mandating negotiations with Westminster to grant a referendum, in an intermediate stage that would add pressure. Alternatively, they could organise their own “illegal” referendum, as happened in Catalonia, or they could call for civil disobedience and refuse to cooperate with Westminster and Whitehall (though Ms Sturgeon seems against such radicalism). Any and all of these questions may end up with the UK’s Supreme Court.