What chance is there of a Brexit deal before the end of October?

A deal is still possible if the right choices are made, but time is running out, explains Jon Stone

The EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier recently said trade talks were ‘going backwards more than forwards’ and ‘valuable time’ had been wasted (Reuters)

The European parliament has said October is a red line for an end to Brexit talks to agree a trade deal. The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has underlined the same deadline. This raises the pressure on both sides to reach an agreement sooner rather than later if they want to avoid no-deal. But what chances are there of getting one?

The warning does make the situation harder: one popular theory in Westminster has been that the pressure shortly before the transition period ends on 31 December will force hands and make both sides do a deal.

But in October, and indeed November, with Covid-19 still distracting everyone, it will be easy not to think too hard about the end of the year.