Putin poisoned Navalny – an open and shut case? Not quite

As so often is the case, things may be a lot more complicated, writes Mary Dejevsky

A woman holding a placard with an image of Navalny expresses support for the opposition leader (AFP/Getty)

Alexei Navalny, one of the more colourful figures in Russia’s variegated opposition, lies seriously ill in a Berlin hospital. The doctors treating him say that “clinical findings indicate poisoning with a substance from the group of cholinesterase inhibitors”, but they are still trying to identify the actual toxin. Navalny’s team say that the poison was probably in a cup of tea he drank at Omsk airport before boarding a flight to Moscow last week and have lost no time in blaming Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin spokesperson, for their part, says such claims cannot be taken seriously.

These are the facts as they stand now. For critics of Putin, in Russia and abroad, the case is open and shut. It is yet another illustration of the Kremlin’s ruthless approach to any opposition figure who ventures to put his head above the parapet, and the impotence of the west to do anything about it. As so often, however, things may be a lot more complicated.

The indictment of Putin goes like this. The Kremlin – from Soviet times to the present day – has a record of poisoning opponents. Navalny, a charismatic figure who pioneered the use of social media in his campaign against corruption, could represent a particular threat in present circumstances. Regional elections are being held on 13 September. Putin’s poll ratings are in decline, and opposition candidates could make inroads into his authority at a local level. With protests still simmering in the far east region of Khabarovsk over the removal of a popular governor, and Belarus, on Russia’s western border, in the throes of what may or may not be a successful uprising, Putin looks more beleaguered than for some time. Neutralising, or even eliminating, Navalny could have a certain logic.