Boris Johnson is blowing a chance to learn from his mistakes – he faces a bleak political winter

This is a dangerous moment for the prime minister, writes Andrew Grice

Boris Johnson outside No 10 (EPA)

Although allies claim Boris Johnson was an unlucky prime minister because the coronavirus pandemic broke out on his watch, he is lucky in one sense. Unlike some politicians, he has now got a second chance, an opportunity to put right his government’s mistakes.

However, the prime minister is in danger of blowing it. He is repeating some of the early errors as Covid-19 cases rise again. He risks losing public trust at a time when he urgently needs their co-operation, by making rash, headline-grabbing promises like  Operation Moonshot on mass testing. It really does make him look like he is on another planet, as the immediate chaos on testing cuts through to an increasingly frustrated public.

Ministers did not expect the current surge in infections until October or November, but surely they and their advisers should have forseen the need for much greater testing capacity when the schools returned this month. The mess over testing underlines Labour’s allegations of “incompetence” – a dangerous narrative for any government.

Cynically adding the “NHS” badge to the test and trace operation has not persuaded the public to love it. They are not gullible. They are losing confidence in the government’s ability to handle the crisis, according to opinion polls and private surveys presented to ministers. According to YouGov, only 25 per cent of people think it is doing well, and 69 per cent badly, the worst overall rating so far.

After the mixed government messages, people think there is no plan and are ignoring the rules – crucially, by not self-isolating for 14 days when they should. Many can’t afford to. A good investment for the state would be to pay 80 per cent of people’s wages while they stay at home for this reason.

The sense of national unity in March has gone. I’ve just returned from a holiday in Italy, where people are still very much all in it together, perhaps because of the terrible battering the country took this spring. 

Everyone sticks to the rules, including young adults. Everyone wears a mask when they should. Temperature tests, taken when you get a train or plane or arrive at a hotel, are more frequent than in the UK. It felt safer there than here. Although the number of infections is rising, Italy has not yet seen the spike witnessed in Spain and France and case numbers are well below the UK’s.

UK ministers always want to blame someone else – whether Public Health England or the civil service. You can tell from their media interviews that they want to blame the public for seeking “free” tests when they don’t have symptoms. Not a good idea, so they just hold back from saying it.

The eyes of ministers and advisers are on the eventual public inquiry into their response to the pandemic. Although Johnson wavers between putting health or the economy first, he will prioritise health because he knows the inquiry is likely to find he locked down too late in March. He wants to be able to say the UK beat back the second wave seen  in France and Spain. He would be right to prioritise health, even though many Tory MPs – Rishi Sunak included – understandably worry about the economic impact.

Johnson’s “whack a mole” strategy of local lockdowns is not doing enough to turn the national tide. We are heading for another national lockdown, even if he doesn’t call it that, after admitting to MPs this week it would be “disastrous” for the economy. 

The new buzz phrase is a “circuit breaker” – restrictions for a few weeks on social contact, possibly limiting the opening hours of pubs and restaurants, while keeping schools and most workplaces open.

Muttering against the prime minister is rising among fractious Tory MPs, who want their “old Boris” back full of vim and vigour,  and complain he is drifting into a second national lockdown without thinking through the economic implications. Some old hands even liken him to “rudderless” predecessor John Major – Johnson used a different nautical metaphor to admit he was “tacking”, but denied he was being blown off course. The comparison is a wounding jibe in Tory land and to someone who aspires to emulate his hero Winston Churchill.  

With the coronavirus “war” unlikely to be over by Christmas as Johnson desperately hopes, this is a dangerous moment for him. What will be a bleak winter politically has begun early.