The local elections will disappoint those hoping they will end Boris Johnson’s career

John Rentoul previews the ‘mid-term’ elections next Thursday

Expect a Labour data geek to count up the votes in Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge constituency and proclaim him the loser (Getty Images)

Labour is likely to “win” the local elections next week – but not by enough to threaten Boris Johnson’s hold on office. For most of this year, a disastrous showing by the Conservatives in these elections has been talked about, not least by Tory MPs themselves, as the moment that they might launch an attempt to force out the prime minister.

As the day approaches, however, it looks as if the results won’t be bad enough to induce the necessary panic in the Tory party. There will be claims on Friday that the Conservatives have lost councils they have controlled for decades, or that they have lost hundreds of council seats, or that Labour has failed to gain ground in places they need to win.

But what really matters is the projected national share of the vote. In the years before the last two changes of the national party of government, in 1997 and 2010, the opposition opened up huge leads in share of the vote in local elections. Labour was 22 points ahead in 1995, and the Conservatives were 19 points ahead in 2008.