Does the west need to start preparing for the post-Putin era?

The signs are already multiplying of unhappiness within two crucial social strata in Russia: the elite and the professional middle class, writes Mary Dejevsky

Putin’s departure, if it comes, is unlikely to be a result of popular pressure, at least from the streets (Reuters)

How might it end has to be the question of the moment. Not just how the horrors unfolding by the hour in Ukraine might be stopped, but what awaits the man who ordered what he called the “special military operation” and what most of the world now calls the invasion of Ukraine.

If part of the ending is, as it could be, the departure of Vladimir Putin, then – inconceivable though it may seem – the world may already be on the threshold of the post-Putin era. And the west has to be prepared for such an eventuality. That means uncertainty not just about the future of Ukraine – one of the biggest countries in Europe – but about the future of the huge landmass that is Russia, too.

Putin’s departure, if it comes, is unlikely to be a result of popular pressure, at least from the streets. Remarkable though it is how many Russians are continuing to protest, despite beatings and arrests now running into many thousands, this is a protest movement that can still be controlled, and those venturing on to the streets will be far outnumbered by those Russians who believe the Kremlin’s line, peddled interminably on the state media, to the effect that military action is limited and justified to combat a (wholly non-existent) Nazi threat from Ukraine.