If the Murdochs buy TikTok, could it become even worse?

Donald Trump says the Fox News tycoon Rupert Murdoch could buy the US part of TikTok from owner ByteDance. What does this mean for Gen Z’s favourite app?

Tick, tick, boom. Or rather, TikTok boom. A social media time bomb is primed to go off after the emergence of the Murdochs as contenders to buy the app’s US arm.

You may recall that in January US congress passed an act that threatened to outlaw Gen Z’s favourite app, motivated principally by concerns over the data of US citizens falling into the hands of Beijing, since TiKTok’s ultimate owner, ByteDance, is a Chinese company.

The problem is that TikTok has become an important cog in America’s economic engine. It isn’t just influencers, who derive income from posting content. Many small business rely on it. Indeed, for many it has been transformative. So while the ban is in place, the law is yet to be enforced.

Trump’s solution to the dilemma? Putting the squeeze on ByteDance to sell its US operations to domestic buyers. This is where the Murdochs, and other business types with the Trump seal of approval, come in. The President wants TikTok US in the hands of his pals. In a Fox News interview on Sunday, he floated “American Patriots” such as Oracle chairman Larry Ellison and Dell founder Michael Dell. "I think they're going to do a really good job," he said. “Rupert is probably gonna be in the group, I think they’re gonna be in the group, a couple of others,” he added.

TikTok’s critics describe the platform as ‘woke’ when it comes to moderation (Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)

What’s worse? Beijing? Or the dynasty which brought the avowedly right-wing Fox News to the world? What does a Murdoch owned TikTok look like? It Isn’t hard to imagine something similar to X under Elon Musk. TikTok’s critics describe the platform as “woke” when it comes to moderation, tolerant of bloodthirsty rhetoric from those who identify as left-leaning while clamping down on conservative views, or anything seen as toxic by the nosiest, most censorious, activist-led elements of the left. The latter would almost certainly change were the Murdochs, or indeed any Trump ally, to gain control.

Yet supporters of free speech should be more preoccupied with TikTok’s algorithm. It is one of the smartest out there when it comes to analysing users and serving up content that keeps them engaged. A cut above most rivals, it has driven the app’s success. What if it were tweaked not just to allow but, indeed, to favour conservative content and even conservative conspiracies and peddle them straight to the app’s young users? Be afraid. Be very afraid.

That said, this is Trump we’re talking about. He is not exactly the most consistent source for making good on his word. There are multiple hurdles for such a deal to clear, not least the financial terms. The most recent employee share buyback - a mechanism which enables staff to cash in their options - put ByteDance’s value at $330bn (£245bn). TikTok’s 2024 revenues have been forecast at $32bn, with the US market accounting for $12bn. Buying this business will require extraordinarily deep pockets, even as part of a forced sale. Then there is the fact that Trump’s comments came after he subjected Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal to a lawsuit in connection with the paper’s publication of allegations that the president composed a crude poem and doodle as part of a book compiled for the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th birthday in 2003. Rupert Murdoch was one of the surprise guests at Trump’s state dinner last week at Windsor Castle, but it is another obstacle to overcome.

Yet I wouldn’t rule Rupert and Lachlan out. The Murdochs looked to be the biggest losers among the billionaire class from the age of streaming. True, the sale of most of Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney, including 20th century Fox with film franchises such as X-men, Alien and Avatar, FX, a 30 per cent stake in Hulu, National Geographic and more besides, netted an impressive $71bn in cash and shares. However, that deal was interpreted by many as recognition that Fox lacked the clout to compete with the likes of Netflix and its peers in a new media landscape dominated. It had reached a strategic dead end. What remained was a rump news-and-sports business, profitable for sure, but not the sort of global empire Murdoch had made his name with (the publishing businesses are part of a separate company).

Conditions have once again changed. Streaming subscriptions have flattened out. There are too many services, and price increases have prompted many consumers to pull the plug. TikTok? It’s free. Don’t underestimate that when the cost of living is hitting everyone in the pocket. And that is where the eyeballs of Gen Z, and many Millennials, are to be found glued. The Murdochs getting control of it would thrust their empire back to the top of the pile. Which is exactly where they want it.