Trump will take the impeachment drama and run with it – quite possibly all the way back to the White House

The president’s support has not budged, much to the anguish of his critics, writes Andrew Buncombe

Donald Trump waves as he boards Air Force One on 31 January (Reuters)

One of the lessons journalists were supposed to have learned from the 2016 US presidential election was not to make predictions about the one in 2020.

Four years ago, few people gave a failed property developer turned reality TV character much of a chance, either of grabbing the Republican nomination and certainly not of defeating his seemingly far better qualified opponent, Hillary Clinton.

Yet nine months from the election day, Donald Trump remains in the White House and is poised to survive being impeached by the Senate in a manner far less painful than it was for Bill Clinton two decades ago, when Clinton was really made to sweat. There was genuine fear among Clinton’s top aides that, if enough Democrats voted to support his impeachment, he may be forced to resign even if he was not actually impeached.

Trump never seemed to be be particularly worried, or even took the issue seriously. He laughed about it. He joked about it. He also made sure to portray himself as a victim of the Democrats in order to persuade his supporters that their opponents were determined to overturn the result of the 2016 vote.

They have certainly rallied to his defence. Even as the most shocking claims about the president’s alleged interactions with Ukraine – demanding it launch a probe into a potential 2020 rival – have played out over the past months, his poll numbers have barely dipped.

Indeed, a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports suggested that only 27 per cent of likely voters considered the ongoing dramas would hurt Trump. Rather, 31 per cent said they would be likely help him.

Trump is far from certain of being re-elected. His approval rating of around 40 per cent is historically low. And while Democrats appear anxious about the electability of the candidates making their case in Iowa this week, there are a number of solid contenders who could be likely to run him close. Add in the millions of dollars Michael Bloomberg will spend on campaigning against Trump, and they ought to be optimistic.

Yet, Trump has repeatedly shown his ability to upend expectations. And his willingness – some will term it brazenness – to come and hold a rally in Iowa during what was supposed to the Democrats’ big week suggests that either the president, or those advising him, should not be underestimated.

It it likely that, come November, any number of other issues will be on voters' minds, and that talk about military aid to Kiev and the president’s July 25 phone call with Volodymyr Zelensky will feel like old, old news.

In the meantime, Trump will shout his “acquittal” from the rooftops. He will brag about how smart he has been, and how foolish his opponents were to think they could get the better of him.

He will pick up the issue and run with it as far as he can. And it might be enough, come November, to put him back in the White House.