Irish coalition lays aside historic differences to fight coronavirus and keep Sinn Fein out of power

Voters in February demanded change – but the proposed Fine Gael-Fianna Fail partnership is not quite what they ordered, writes Ben Kelly

Lorry showing images of Fina Gael leader and current Irish Taoiseach (Reuters)

It’s been almost 10 weeks since Ireland’s general election threw up one of the most surprising results in the country’s history. Voters who were angry about health and housing, and hungry for change, propelled the left-wing Sinn Fein into the lead for the first time ever, but in seat terms, it was a near three-way tie with the traditional “big two” Fine Gael and Fianna Fail. In the truly extraordinary period of time since that vote (to quote the much-quoted W B Yeats) all has changed utterly.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have now come together and produced a framework for coalition, which puts aside 100 years of political rivalry in pursuit of national stability. The two parties are descended from the opposing sides in Ireland’s civil war, and while they have ruled the country back and forth for a century, they have never done so together. In these desperate times, there are three reasons why the parties have now found the impetus to work together.

Firstly, both parties have been greatly depleted. National tribes as much as political institutions, there was a time in the mid-1980s when Fine Gael and Fianna Fail together took almost 85 per cent of the vote in Ireland. But the 2008 crash and a decade of austerity have left voters disillusioned with them both, and younger voters are less loyal to traditional voting patterns. At this recent election, the two parties took just 43 per cent combined. For either to get anywhere near power, they need the help of each other – and then some.

Secondly, they have been faced with the surprising rise of Sinn Fein. The Republican Party captured the mood for change in February’s election, and topped the popular vote – albeit falling far short of a majority. With Fine Gael and Fianna Fail both opposed to working with Sinn Fein (and neither wanting a second election), they have little choice but to work together in order to keep Mary Lou McDonald’s party out of power. For their part, Sinn Fein failed to assemble a government of the left that they could lead, leaving the door open again for the traditional two parties.

Thirdly, there is the coronavirus pandemic, which transformed the post-election landscape in Ireland and distracted everyone from government formation efforts. Now serving as caretaker Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar has been tackling the crisis well, quietly confident that the country is flattening the curve and falling far below the level of expected cases. After delivering a well received, quasi-Churchillian speech to the nation, Varadkar even found himself more popular in Northern Ireland than Boris Johnson. You could almost be forgiven for forgetting that this was the man rejected by voters in February.

More importantly, the pandemic has focused minds not just on the immediate challenges, but on the inevitable long-term consequences Ireland will face. The reality that hard work and cooperation will be essential in the coming years has given Fine Gael and Fianna Fail a cover for doing business together – in the face of factions in both parties who would vehemently oppose it.

Together, they are proposing a broad manifesto to carry Ireland through the coronavirus pandemic and help it rebuild afterwards – including promises to establish universal healthcare, tackle the housing crisis and deliver a New Green Deal. While it responds to the electorate’s demand for change, critics point out that it is full of expensive promises, with no obvious plan for footing the bill. It also appeases the left-wing with the type of policies that drove voters to other parties during the election campaign, and that they would have criticised had they come from other quarters. Their job now is to convince one of the smaller parties such as the Greens or Labour to join them – as the pair cannot reach a majority with their seats alone.

While Fine Gael and Fianna Fail may act as though this proposed coalition is a major step for them to take, they have actually been wedded together in a confidence and supply arrangement since 2016. This deal saw the popularity of both parties decline, while the differences between them became increasingly indistinguishable. Both centre/centre-right parties, it is worth noting that greater ideological differences exist within British political parties than exist between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

This blurring together will only intensify if the pair commit to coalition – and Sinn Fein will be the winners. The real victory in this election was Sinn Fein establishing themselves as real players, who can win elections, and – if they hold their ground – form a government in the future. For now, they can enjoy being the official opposition for the first time. Some in the party may even be relieved they are not taking the reins of the state for the first time during a time of such national crisis.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have described this deal between them as “historic”, but this is really about two old enemies calling a truce because neither has the power to keep battling each other, and – to quote a rock classic – they’ve forgotten what they started fighting for. They are both wings of the same establishment, which will do what is necessary to keep the perceived threat of Sinn Fein at bay.

But to give credit where it’s due, this is also a time when many will be glad to see the establishment pulling together and tackling the very real threat of coronavirus. The proposed framework for government produced by the parties is ambitious, and may even be mocked by some, but in lieu of any alternative, it is in the interests of everyone in Ireland to see a serious attempt at its delivery.