The rise of the Ozempic menu and how weight-loss drugs are changing dining out

With more diners skipping mains, drinking less and sharing starters because of weight-loss drugs, the traditional three-course meal could soon be a thing of the past. Hannah Twiggs looks at how this could be affecting a restaurant near you

There was a time when a trip to a restaurant meant indulgence – starters, mains, sides, desserts and a wine list long enough to require an intermission. But now, a different kind of ordering is creeping in. A table of four might share a few starters, perhaps split a pasta dish and skip the booze entirely. The waiter, trained in the art of the upsell, sighs. This is not the behaviour of diners luxuriating in a meal – it’s the hallmark of a room full of Ozempic users.

For those unacquainted, Ozempic is the latest miracle weight-loss drug. Originally designed for diabetes management, Ozempic and other similar drugs have exploded in popularity as a weight-loss aid, thanks to their ability to suppress appetite by mimicking the GLP-1 hormone, which tells your brain that you’re full. The result? A surge in slimmer waistlines but a noticeable dip in restaurant revenues.

In the US, where Ozempic and its counterparts are widely used, restaurants are already seeing the effects. A Morgan Stanley survey found that 63 per cent of Ozempic users are spending less when they dine out – not because they’re broke but because they physically can’t stomach the same multi-course meals they once did.

This isn’t just a niche trend confined to Hollywood circles or social media bio-hackers. The UK is facing an obesity crisis of its own, with 64 per cent of adults now classified as overweight or obese, and 50 million Brits expected to be living with obesity by 2050 – which will cost the healthcare system £10bn annually.

While currently available through the NHS only for specific cases, demand for this new generation of weight-loss drugs is skyrocketing. Research shows that one in 10 women are now on the drug, with 1.45 million prescriptions dolled out in 2023/24. And these figures don’t touch the sides when it comes to the number of patients accessing the drug privately (sometimes illegally) too.

The question is no longer if British restaurants will feel the impact, but how quickly and how severely.

Smaller plates, lighter wallets

In the grand tradition of British dining, portion size has never really been the issue – we’ve always favoured big roasts, hearty pies and desserts that require a nap after consumption. But a shift is happening, and restaurateurs are already taking note.

Nima Safaei, the owner of 64 Old Compton Street, 40 Dean Street and the upcoming 27 Old Compton Street, has noticed a marked change in customer behaviour.

“More customers are coming in just for drinks or ordering a couple of starters to share, and we’re seeing fewer three-course meals,” he explains. “Sometimes we do wonder why people come in if they’re not particularly hungry, but we understand that it’s about the social experience and enjoying an evening with friends.”

That last point is crucial. Restaurants have always been about more than food – they’re where we socialise, celebrate and conduct business. But when food itself becomes a mere accessory, the financial model begins to wobble. Safaei acknowledges that the shift is affecting spending per table. “There has been some impact, especially when guests order fewer courses or share more. While the overall spend per table might be slightly lower in some cases, we’re finding that people are still coming out to dine, they're just doing it differently.”

This shift is echoed by the recent Morgan Stanley report, which found that while Ozempic users are ordering less food, they aren’t necessarily dining out less often. The fear that appetite-suppressing drugs would keep people at home, bypassing restaurants altogether, hasn’t materialised – at least, not yet. Instead, dining habits are changing in more nuanced ways.

Many Ozempic users are still booking tables, but their approach to food has altered. They might opt for a couple of starters instead of a full meal, gravitate towards protein-rich options or simply focus on the social aspect of the evening rather than the indulgence of eating.

Nima Safaei has noticed a shift – more sharing, fewer full meals and a growing challenge for restaurants to balance experience with economics (Luke Santilli)

For the hospitality industry, this presents a challenge: how do you maintain profitability when the same number of diners are walking through the door, but they’re consuming significantly less?

Alcohol: The other casualty

It’s not just the food orders that are shrinking – so are the drink bills. Many Ozempic users report reduced cravings for alcohol, a side effect that is beginning to show up in restaurants and bars. Safaei has noticed this too. “Some guests are drinking less overall, skipping pre-dinner cocktails or opting for lighter options like spritzes or lower-ABV wines,” he says. “That said, people still want to enjoy themselves, and the social aspect of having a drink with friends hasn’t disappeared – it’s just evolving.”

For restaurants, this is more concerning than a few hardly touched mains. Alcohol sales are one of the biggest money-makers, often propping up the slim profit margins on food. Toby Clark, EMEA VP of consulting at Morgan Stanley, warns that this could be one of the most significant industry shifts. “It feels as if GLP-1 could be a real threat to the sector, especially given the extensive reports of users reducing alcohol intake. Alcohol is a key driver of profitability in many restaurants, so there’s a potential double-whammy of reduced income from food and from drinks revenue.”

With fewer people drinking and fewer ordering full meals, restaurants are looking at a problem they can’t simply fix with a new tasting menu.

From tapas to tweaks

Some high-end restaurants in New York and Los Angeles have already started adjusting menus, introducing half-portions, smaller plates and “luxury bites” (think canapes, caviar and oysters) that cater to diners who want quality but not quantity. And while no UK restaurant has officially branded itself as “Ozempic-friendly” in the same way they might for keto or gluten-free, the shift towards tapas-style dining, protein-rich meals and nutrient-dense options is already in motion.

Tapas-style meals will also go some way towards solving the problem of what to order when some people around the table have dramatically reduced appetites, while others are wanting a full meal

Toby Clark, Morgan Stanley

Of course, long before Ozempic, London was already in the grip of a dining trend that favoured smaller sharing plates, a shift that was met with both enthusiasm and exasperation. The rise of this kind of dining – championed by the likes of Russell Norman and José Pizarro in the early 2010s – transformed how people ate out. Instead of the predictable starter-main-dessert format, restaurants embraced a more flexible, shareable approach.

With Ozempic subtly reshaping how people dine, restaurants may now find themselves at a crossroads. On the one hand, small plates already cater to a clientele that prefers a lighter, more varied dining experience. On the other hand, the fine margins of the business mean that if more people are eating less, restaurants will need to rethink pricing, portions and profitability.

“Portion sizes and menu choices are always something we think about, and with dining habits shifting, it’s tempting to introduce half portions for certain dishes,” says Safaei. “It’s especially easy to do with pasta [the theme of his new restaurant], which naturally lends itself to different portion sizes. However, we take pride in offering generous portions at great value, and we don’t want to compromise on that.”

Clark predicts that the industry will lean into a “less is more” approach, with smaller portions and more flexible menus becoming the norm. “Tapas-style meals will also go some way towards solving the problem of what to order when some people around the table have dramatically reduced appetites, while others are wanting a full meal,” he says. But, as anyone who has ever tried to split a bill among a group of friends with wildly different eating habits will know, this could create an entirely new level of awkwardness at the end of the meal.

A slimmer future for hospitality?

Beyond the immediate concerns of portion sizes and alcohol sales, the rise of Ozempic raises a broader question: are we moving towards a permanent shift in how people dine out? The weight-loss drug market is projected to reach $105bn (£81bn) by 2030, meaning this isn’t just a short-lived trend. Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, the creator of Ozempic and Wegovy, might be slimming waistlines, but the popularity of the drugs is fattening the entire economy of Denmark.

Clark believes that the rise of GLP-1 drugs will accelerate existing trends rather than create entirely new ones. “So many of the impacts of GLP-1 drugs are likely to accelerate existing trends,” he says. “We've seen a generational shift in attitudes towards health, while the idea of tapas-style ‘small plates’ is now embedded in foodie culture.”

For restaurants, this means adapting or falling behind. Prices may need to rise to compensate for lower consumption. Menus may need to be more flexible, allowing for both hearty meals and light bites. The traditional three-course dining experience may soon feel as outdated as smoking sections.

Ozempic isn’t killing the restaurant industry – it’s just rewriting the rules. The question is, will Britain’s hospitality sector adapt, or will it, like a half-eaten dessert, be left unfinished?

One thing’s certain: chefs and restaurateurs will need to get creative with their menus because, for a growing number of diners, food is no longer the main event. And if the future of dining really is a shared starter and a single spritz... well, at least the bill will be easier to stomach.