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The week ahead: Old Mutual faces questions on acquisition plan

James Daley
Monday 08 August 2005 00:00 BST
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With the South African rand - the currency in which Old Mutual generates about 75 per cent of its earnings - having weakened some 8 per cent over the first half of the year, the overall result is not expected to look too exciting for UK investors in the stock.

Although the recovery of its banking subsidiary, Nedcor, appears to be under way, and most other areas of the business are making steady progress, a rapid deterioration in the rand will always have the power to damage what should have been a relatively upbeat results day for the group.

Investors are also likely to be disappointed if the group does not provide them with at least a morsel of news on how its acquisition plans are going.

For as long as most people can remember, Old Mutual has been aching to buy something in Europe - with the capacity to bid as high as £1bn.

First it was asset managers, then closed life books, while its latest target is Skandia, the Scandinavian insurance giant, which also has a strong foothold in the UK. Although investors are desperate to see Old Mutual make some progress with its plans for a major buy, there has been great scepticism voiced over the sense of a Skandia deal. If Old Mutual cannot provide any assurance that a deal is around the corner when it reports on Wednesday, it may at least please investors by telling them that its flirtation with Skandia is over.

Aviva's results on Thursday are likely to be an entirely different affair. Although private investor confidence is still a bit soft, Aviva's general insurance business has been going great guns. This has been boosted by its acquisition of RAC earlier this year, which brings it an extra book of existing financial services business, as well as an enormous new customer base to which it can cross-sell numerous other products. Although - like all insurers - it is suffering some margin erosion, expect a good set of numbers.

TODAY: Standard Chartered is one of two banks to report this week, bringing the banking sector's summer results season to a close. Unlike its other London-listed rivals, Standard is not weighed down by bad debt worries, and has seen its share price soar to six-year highs as its core Asian business has continued to grow. One piece of news to look out for may be some insight into just how much value it believes it will squeeze from its recent acquisition of Korea First Bank.

Results: Interims - Morgan Sindall, Standard Chartered.

TOMORROW: The other bank to report is Bradford & Bingley. As a UK-centric company, B&B's results will be all about how the group is managing rising bad debt levels. As the UK's largest buy-to-let lender, the company warned in a trading statement in May that conditions were worsening. But investors will be keen for reassurance that its full year targets of 6 per cent growth are still achievable. Also tomorrow, Scottish & Newcastle, the country's largest brewer, will be reporting, and investors will be keen to hear an update on the ever-rapid growth of its overseas operations.

Aside from a good flurry of results from the FTSE 100 this week, the other big news will be the US interest rate decision tomorrow, with investors anticipating another rise.

This will be the tenth rise in a row, but many believe it could be the last in the current cycle.

Results: Interims - Bradford & Bingley, Scottish & Newcastle. Q2 - NTL.

WEDNESDAY: After selling its Pacificorp business in the US at a knockdown price earlier this year, Scottish Power, the power generator and supplier, is now in effect an acquisition target. But the disposal of Pacificorp is set to take more than a year to complete, so news that this process remains on track, while management keeps the rest of the business on an even footing, is what the market will be listening out for.

Results: Interims - Old Mutual, Xstrata. Q1 - Scottish Power. Traffic figures - BAA.

THURSDAY: After its exit from the life insurance business last year, Royal & SunAlliance is now purely a general insurer.

Although its business has come a long way from the dark days of a few years ago, there remains a nasty book of legacy asbestos claims in the US, for which the total bill is still unknown. Some reassurance on this side of the business will be needed, while news of plans for the sale of its US non-standard automobile business is another point to watch.

Results: Interims - Aviva, Royal & SunAlliance, P&O, Spirent. AGM: Investec.

FRIDAY: No results scheduled.

Economics Diary

TODAY: UK - producer prices (Jul); ODPM house price survey (Jun).

TOMORROW: UK - trade (Jun); BRC retail sales (Jul). US - Fed interest rate decision.

WEDNESDAY: UK - Bank of England Inflation Report.

THURSDAY: Eurozone - ECB monthly bulletin; GDP (Q2); US - retail sales (Jul).

FRIDAY: Bank of Japan minutes (Jul). US - trade (Jun); Michigan consumer sentiment index (Aug).

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