What would be the economic impact of a new ‘circuit break’ lockdown?

The economic impact of two weeks of nationwide restrictions on their own would not be as severe as March’s lockdown says Ben Chu. But a big unknown is what will happen to consumer sentiment

If new nationwide restrictions serve to raise public concerns anywhere close to the levels of March it’s possible the economic hit could be much more severe than first instance estimates suggests (AFP/Getty)

The government seems to be considering acting on the advice of some of its scientific advisors who are proposing a two-week England-wide lockdown – described as a “circuit break” – to coincide with the October school half-term in order to curb the recent rise in the number of identified coronavirus cases.

We’re told that ministers would not order schools to close down again and that this would not be as severe as the lockdown that was belatedly imposed in March when non key workers were instructed not to leave their homes except for food and exercise for around two months. Yet there are suggestions the opening hours of hospitality businesses could be limited to prevent people coming into contact with each other – similar to the recent local lockdown restrictions which currently cover a fifth of the population.