Chatset forecasts an extra pounds 1bn of losses for Lloyd's

LOSSES at the Lloyd's of London insurance market could climb to pounds 8.7bn for a five-year period if further losses of pounds 1bn are recorded next year.

According to Chatset, a small firm of analysts run by two Lloyd's underwriting members, losses for the 1991 trading account, due to be reported later this year, will be just over pounds 2bn. This forecast is in line with market estimates reported by the Independent early last December.

In the light of the December forecasts Chatset has doubled projections made at the beginning of 1993 from a loss of around pounds 1bn to the current pounds 2bn figure.

Chatset has warned that a further pounds 1bn of losses could be in the pipeline for the 1992 underwriting period if the outstanding liabilities of business units remain uncertain.

The analysts comment that 1991 was not beset by the catastrophes of the two previous years, 'but has remained a very indifferent year. The marine market remained the weakest area'. Premium rates steadily improved in 1991, according to Chatset, and this only 'showed through in 1992. We see a healthy improvement in settlement ratios for marine, motor and aviation although non-marine (the general insurance business) has shown a further overall deterioration.

For the 1993 account, Chatset observes that it 'has all the hallmarks of a first-class year. It was catastrophe-free, although the Australian bushfires and Los Angeles earthquake will make some impact. We are confident of a pure year profit.'